Tennessee vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for College Football Playoff First Round

Reed Wallach | Dec 18, 2024

Nov 30, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers running back Dylan Sampson (6) runs the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Columbus, Ohio to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes to cap the first round of the College Football Playoff. 

Ohio State has spent much of the season at the top of the odds board in terms of National Championship odds, but its path got harder after a regular season finale loss to rival Michigan. The team will look to bounce back and focus on a postseason run by facing a formidable SEC foe in Tennessee, who has been playing at a high level to close the season. 

With a young quarterback in Nico Iamaleava, a unique offensive scheme under Josh Heupel, and an elite defensive line, can the Vols keep up on the road? 

Here’s our betting preview.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Tennessee: +7.5 (-108)
• Ohio State: -7.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Tennessee: +220
• Ohio State: -275

Total: 46.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Tennessee vs. Ohio State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 21
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Ohio Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC

Tennessee vs. Ohio State Key Players to Watch

Tennessee 

Nico Iamaleava: While the redshirt freshman hasn’t lived up to lofty expectations, he has quietly started to round into form at the end of the season, capping the regular season with four touchdown passes while completing 69% of his passes on the road at Vanderbilt. Overall, Iamaleava has completed 65% of his passes for 2,512 yards and 19 passing touchdowns with only five interceptions on the season. Will he be able to show up and guide this Tennessee offense on the road against an elite defense? 

Ohio State

Will Howard: The Buckeyes are based on its run game, but a lot of pressure is on Howard’s arm to connect with the likes of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka in the passing game. While he has succeeded at times, the team lacks a big play element that other Ohio State teams have had in the passing game. Overall, this team is outside the top 50 in explosive pass rate. Howard has been more than capable, but it hasn’t connected consistently. He has passed for 2,860 yards and 72% of his passes with eight interceptions. 

Tennessee vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Ohio State went away from what was working in the Michigan game, and it ended up costing the team a chance at the Big Ten Championship. Despite finding constant success in the passing game, the team had a 60-40 run-pass split that had the team stall in Michigan territory far too often. 

The team has a similar matchup against Tennessee, who is elite at stopping the run and has an edge on the defensive line with Ohio State slated to be down several starting offensive linemen who have suffered season ending injuries. 

The Vols run stopping is among the best in the country, allowing less than three yards per carry and 11th in EPA/Rush, but the secondary can be had. While still a sturdy unit, the group is 24th in EPA/Pass and will face arguably the best pass catching group in the country. 

If Ohio State opts to go to the pass more often, I believe the team can move the ball enough to lean on its sturdy defense and scratch out a low-scoring win. However, the Vols pass rush may keep a lid on the Buckeyes high end outcomes behind pass rusher James Pearce that anchors a unit that is top 10 in the country in tackles for loss and top EPA/Play. 

However, the Vols offense may also struggle. While there are avenues to success as Ohio State isn’t familiar with the Josh Heupel offense that spreads its offense out wide and plays at a fast tempo, the team hasn’t been as dangerous in the passing game. Iamaleava hasn’t been able to connect on deep passes with enough consistency this season and the group has become more of a run-first offense around lead back Dylan Sampson. Tennessee averages more than five yards per carry, but overall is outside the top 100 in explosive rush and pass rate. 

The Ohio State defense should have the edge, especially at putting the Vols behind the sticks. The Buckeyes have the best early down EPA/Play mark in the nation, per Gameonpaper, and rank top 20 in both EPA/Rush and success rate allowed on the ground.

To me, I believe this game becomes a defensive struggle as both teams try to establish the run and fall behind the sticks against elite defensive lines while each quarterback lacks the consistency to challenge the opposing secondary, making for a battle for field position for much of this one. 

With so many question marks on the Ohio State offensive line, I do question the team’s ability to blowout a Tennessee team that can shut down its run game. 

Overall, I’m inclined to take the points in a postseason setting. 

PICK: Tennessee +7.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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