Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 14

Reed Wallach | Nov 25, 2024

Nov 9, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia (2) scrambles against the South Carolina Gamecocks during the first half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Tennessee has emerged as a clear College Football Playoff team with only two losses this season, but the team must win its final game of the regular season to ensure safety, facing off against Vanderbilt in an in-state showdown. 

The Commodores have been a tough out for nearly every team in SEC play, pulling a handful of upsets this season, can the team pull one more before the regular season ends? Here’s our betting preview for this SEC regular season finale on Saturday. 

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Tennessee: -11.5 (-110)
• Vanderbilt: +11.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Tennessee: -465
• Vanderbilt: +350

Total: 48.5 (Over -106/Under -114)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, November 30
• Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Venue: Memorial Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Tennessee Record: 9-2
• Vanderbilt Record: 6-5

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Key Players to Watch

Tennessee

Nico Iamalaeava: The sophomore quarterback has had moments of brilliance, but also bouts of inconsistency in the passing game throughout SEC play. Iamaleava has completed 65% of his passes, but only has 15 touchdown passes and 2,255 yards this season for the CFP hopeful.

Vanderbilt

Diego Pavia: The chaos agent of the SEC this season, Pavia has been remarkable for the typically offensively challenged Commodores. He has total 22 touchdowns with nearly 2,700 yards of offense while avoiding many turnovers, only three interceptions on the season. Pavia is tough to bring down in the passing game and has kept this offense on point all season, ranking around the national average in metrics like EPA/Play and success rate. 

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

The veer-and-shoot offense that Josh Huepel runs hasn’t connected in terms of big plays as the team is outside the top 100 in explosive pass and rush rate. 

Vanderbilt has done a remarkable job all season with limiting big plays and the amount of possessions in the game as the team has limited mistakes and been able to stay on the field. 

With fewer possessions, its harder to get margin on a team if it's able to get timely stops. While the Tennessee defensive line is among the best in the country, the Vanderbilt offense has been able to stack up in SEC play and string together quality drives. The ‘Dores rank 52nd in the country in points per drive at over two. 

Tennessee’s offense has been well below expectations all season as the team relies on its lead back, Dylan Sampson to shoulder the load. Sampson the Tennessee offense averages over five yards per carry, but the Commodores defense is a top 50 rush defense in terms of EPA/Play. 

Vanderbilt has covered in all six games that it has been an underdog of more than 10 points as the market fails to capture this team’s true power rating. While Tennessee has the significant talent edge, I do believe Vandy has the avenues to make the Vols’ sweat for its CFP berth. 

With fewer possessions and an offense that has been shaky at times this season, only 54th in EPA/Play, I believe that the home underdog can stay close yet again. 

Tennessee has beaten one SEC team by more than 10 points this season, the league’s worst unit Mississippi State, and I don’t see it happening here. 

PICK: Vanderbilt +11.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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