Texans vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 16 (Trust Chiefs at Home)

Can the Chiefs pull off a win as home underdogs?

The Chiefs are underdogs in Week 16. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The biggest story in the AFC this week is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his ankle injury as the Chiefs attempt to lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Mahomes injured his ankle in Week 15 against the Cleveland Browns, and he and the Chiefs were originally set as underdogs against the Houston Texans in Week 16 – a sign that he wasn't expected to play on Saturday. Since then, Mahomes has been listed as a full participant in practice and appears to be good to go, moving KC to a 2.5-point favorite.

This is a shorter week for the Chiefs, as they play on Saturday and on Christmas Day in the next two weeks.

Houston has locked up the AFC South, but it could move up in the standings depending upon how it finishes the regular season. 

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m attempting to predict the final score for this Saturday matchup. First, let’s break down the odds and some key trends to know before betting on this matchup.  

Texans vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Texans +2.5 (-105)
• Chiefs -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Texans: +114
• Chiefs: -135

Total

• 41.5 (Over -108/Under -1112)

Kansas City is an NFL-best 27-15-1 as an underdog under Andy Reid (since 2013), but it may be harder to bet on the Chiefs if Mahomes (ankle) doesn’t play. The Texans are the best UNDER team in the NFL (10-4 to the UNDER) and they’ve gone 6-6-2 against the spread this season. 

Texans vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan – our NFL betting insider – shared his favorite bet for this matchup, and he’s buying the Chiefs as dogs: 

The Texans are currently listed as 2.5-point favorites in Kansas City on Saturday which means the market is already treating the game as if Patrick Mahomes won't be playing, despite that not yet being confirmed. Even if he doesn't play, I think there's slight value on the Chiefs in this spot with the line set at KC +2.5.

Carson Wentz is one of the more capable backups in the NFL, but this wager is more so betting against the Texans' offense in a tough road spot against the Chiefs' defense. Houston has struggled to move the ball all season, and it's been even worse in recent games, averaging just 4.6 yards per play over their last three games, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. Their offense is also just 22nd in EPA per play and 28th in success rate since Week 11.

Something is going on with the Texans' offense whether it's a bad offensive line, regression from C.J. Stroud, or a lack of creativity with their playcalling. That could be bad news against a Chiefs defense that seemed to have figured something out last week against the Browns.

If Mahomes doesn't suit up, I think this game will be closer than people expect. If he does end up playing, we're going to be sitting with a great number if we have a Chiefs +2.5 ticket in our hands.

Now, the spread has moved down from when MacMillan bet it on Monday night – Houston is now just a 2.5-point underdog – and I still think the Chiefs can win this game. 

The Texans have played a bunch of low-scoring matchups this season – hence their UNDER record – and if Mahomes does suit up, Kansas City should roll.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 19, Texans 16

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