Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 16

The Chiefs are set as underdogs in Week 16 against Houston.

The Chiefs are set as underdogs in Week 16 against Houston. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs control their own destiny to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they find themselves as underdogs for the third time this season in Week 16 against the Houston Texans.

A big reason why? 

Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury.

As our own Iain MacMillan outlined earlier this week, Mahomes’ status is truly in doubt based on the Chiefs opening as underdogs in the betting market. While the injury isn’t supposed to be serious, Kansas City may play things safe with the superstar quarterback since the playoffs are only a few weeks away.

If Mahomes doesn't go, Carson Wentz would likely get the start for the Chiefs.

Houston clinched the AFC South this season, meaning it’ll be back in the playoffs, but it could move up in the seeding with a strong finish to the 2024 regular season. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch, betting trends, and my prediction for this Week 16 matchup. 

Texans vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Texans -2.5 (-108)
• Chiefs +2.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Texans: -130
• Chiefs: +110

Total

• 40 (Over -110/Under -110)

Texans vs. Chiefs How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 21
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
• Texans record: 9-5
• Chiefs record: 13-1

Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

• The Chiefs are 6-8 against the spread this season.
• The Texans are 6-6-2 against the spread this season.
• The Chiefs are 1-1 against the spread as underdogs this season.
• The Texans are 2-2-1 ATS as road favorites this season.
• Kansas City is an NFL-best 27-15-1 as an underdog under Andy Reid (since 2013).
• The UNDER is 8-6 in the Chiefs’ 14 games.
• The Texans are the best UNDER team in the NFL this season at 10-4.  

Texans vs. Chiefs Injury Reports

Texans Injury Report

• Cade Stover – questionable
• Folorunso Fatukasi – questionable
• Juice Scruggs – questionable

Chiefs Injury Report

• Patrick Mahomes – questionable
• D.J. Humphries – questionable
• Chamarri Conner – questionable

Texans vs. Chiefs Key Players to Watch

Houston Texans

CJ Stroud: The No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Stroud hasn’t exactly taken a leap in his sophomore season, throwing for just 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions across 14 games. Houston still has clinched the AFC South, but it would love to see Stroud close out the season strong heading into the playoffs. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco: If Mahomes sits, the Chiefs may lean on their running game more with Isiah Pacheco leading the way. After missing time with a leg injury earlier this season, Pacheco has returned to rush for 131 yards on 34 carries in three games, catching four of his six targets for 26 yards. 

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

Even with Patrick Mahomes in the lineup, the Chiefs have fallen short of 40 combined points in three straight games.

So, if he sits in Week 16, I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game go UNDER the total.

If the star quarterback does play, the UNDER is still a solid bet since the Chiefs have allowed the fifth-fewest points in the NFL this season. 

Plus, Houston has hit the UNDER 10 times in the 2024 campaign – more than any other team in the NFL. Last week, the Texans put up just 32 combined points in a win over Miami, and they’ve allowed the 10th fewest points in the league this season.

Don’t be shocked if this ends up as a low-scoring affair. 

Pick: UNDER 40 (-110)

---

More NFL Week 16 Betting Stories

manual

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.