Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 11

Why a wager on the total may be the best bet in this Monday night matchup.

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Dallas Cowboys’ season is over, as they sit at 3-6 and have lost quarterback Dak Prescott for the season due to a hamstring injury. 

Dallas scored just six points in a blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 10, and it enters Monday’s night matchup with the Houston Texans on a four-game losing streak.

Houston squandered a golden chance to upset the Detroit Lions in Week 10, losing on a last-second field goal despite picking off Jared Goff five times in the game. Can the Texans (6-4) bounce back on the road in Week 11?

Oddsmakers have favored the Texans in a big way against Cooper Rush and Dallas, and it makes sense given how bad the Cowboys offense was against Philly. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch, injuries, and betting trends to help you bet on this Week 11 matchup. 

Texans vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Texans -7.5 (-110)
• Cowboys +7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Texans: -360
• Cowboys: +285

Total

• 42 (Over -112/Under -108)

Texans vs. Cowboys How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Nov. 18
• Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Venue: AT&T Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC/ESPN
• Texans record: 6-4
• Cowboys record: 3-6

Texans vs. Cowboys Betting Trends

• The Texans are 4-5-1 against the spread this season.
• The Cowboys are just 2-7 against the spread this season.
• The Cowboys are 0-4 against the spread at home.
• The Cowboys are 2-5 against the spread as an underdog this season.
• Houston is 1-2 against the spread as a road favorite.
• The OVER 5-4 in Dallas’ nine games.
• The UNDER is 8-2 in Houston’s 10 games. 

Texans vs. Cowboys Injury Reports

Texans Injury Report

• Nico Collins – questionable
• Will Anderson Jr. – questionable
• Mario Edwards Jr. – questionable 
• Folorunso Fatukasi – questionable
• Dameon Pierce – questionable
• Kamari Lassiter – questionable

Cowboys Injury Report

• Dak Prescott – out for season
• Tyler Guyton – questionable
• DaRon Bland – questionable
• DeMarvion Overshown – questionable
• Juanyeh Thomas – questionable

Texans vs. Cowboys Key Players to Watch

Houston Texans

CJ Stroud: Will Stroud have a bounce-back game after throwing two picks against the Detroit Lions? So far this season, Stroud had just 12 touchdown passes, and he’s thrown two scores and two picks in total over his last four games. 

Dallas Cowboys 

Cooper Rush: The Dallas backup quarterback received an endorsement from Jerry Jones despite his dreadful showing in Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones on @1053thefan said they are sticking with Cooper Rush at QB because "he does give us our best chance."

Jones added that Sunday's loss to the Eagles "was out of character" for Rush. "He was not the Cooper Rush we know. A lot of things went wrong for us…

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) November 12, 2024

Rush will start on Monday night after completing just 13 of his 23 passes for 45 yards. The Cowboys simply cannot win without a pass offense. 

Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction and Pick

Houston has been the best UNDER team in the NFL this season, and it ranks sixth in the NFL in EPA/Play on that side of the ball.

While The Texans may be able to move the ball against a Dallas defense that has given up the fifth most points in the NFL, Stroud has not looked as good as he did as a rookie this season. 

Nico Collins’ return may boost the Houston offense, but will it do enough to clear 42 combined points?

Remember, Dallas scored just six points against the Eagles (15th in defensive EPA/Play) in Week 10 and Rush was set up by a turnover inside the five yard-line at one point in the game. 

I don’t think that we can trust this Dallas offense to score enough to go OVER this total, and Houston may be content with just running the ball – Dallas allows 4.7 yards per carry – and chewing clock if it goes up early. 

Pick: UNDER 42 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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