Texans vs. Jaguars Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 13 (Bet the OVER)

Iain MacMillan | 3 Hours Ago

The Texans are favored to bounce back with a win in Week 13 against the Jaguars. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Houston Texans suffered a tough loss in Week 12 when they fell to the Tennessee Titans. They'll face another AFC South opponent in Week 13 when they face the Jacksonville Jaguars. They've had plenty of ups and downs in their 2024 campaign, but a win on Sunday will be a huge step in the direction of locking up the division title for the second straight season.

The Jaguars are fresh off their BYE and with Trevor Lawrence returning to practice this week, there's a strong possibility he returns to the field on Sunday. Their season is likely over, but they can carry any potential momentum into the offseason.

Let's dive into the latest odds for this game and then I'll predict the final score.

Texans vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Texans -3.5 (-112)
• Jaguars +3.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Texans -185
• Jaguars +154

Total

• OVER 43.5 (-112)
• UNDER 43.5 (-108)

The Texans opened as 6-point favorites but with Trevor Lawrence on track to return to action, the line has since moved down to Texans -3.5. The total for the game has also reacted to the news, increasing half a point from 43.0 to 43.5.

Texans vs. Jaguars Final Score Prediction

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I broke down why I'm betting on the total instead of a side in this game:

Trevor Lawrence returned to practice on Monday meaning there's a chance he returns to the lineup on Sunday to take on the Jaguars' divisional foe. That's enough to make me lean toward the Jaguars, especially considering how great their offense was looking before Lawrence went down with an injury, but their defense is going to keep me away from doing that. Instead, I'm going to take the OVER on a total that's set at a relatively low number of 43.

The Jaguars rank dead last in opponent EPA and 29th in opponent success rate while ranking dead last in opponent yards per play, allowing 6.2 yards per snap. Any game involving a defense that bad shouldn't have a total of 43.

Let's sit back and root for points as the Texans try to bounce back from a tough loss to the Titans.

When it comes to a side, I would've taken the Jaguars at the previous spread of six, but now that the market has correctly adjusted to the Lawrence news, the value may lie on the other side, which is the Texans. The Jacksonville defense has been the worst in the NFL this season whereas the Houston defense has been the best in a lot of different areas, especially the secondary.

Final score prediction: Texans 31, Jaguars 24

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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