Texans vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 6 (Back Houston in Drake Maye’s Debut)

Will the Texans spoil Drake Maye's NFL debut?

Houston Texans defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Houston Texans shut down Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season to move to 4-1, and now they have an easier matchup on the road against the New England Patriots in Week 6.

New England will be starting No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye for the first time this season, a tough matchup for the North Carolina product. Houston held Allen to just nine completions on 30 pass attempts in Week 5, and now it’ll look to deploy an elite defense on the Patriots, who have scored the second-fewest points in the NFL this season. 

Oddsmakers have set New England as a seven-point underdog at home in this matchup, and Jerod Mayo’s team is just 1-3-1 against the spread overall in 2024.

Now, the Texans are down No. 1 receiver Nico Collins due to a hamstring injury, but they have also gotten solid production from Stefon Diggs so far in 2024. 

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m attempting to predict the final score for this game, which will hopefully lead bettors to a side or total that ends up being a winner in Week 6.   

Texans vs. Patriots Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• Texans -7 (-108)
• Patriots +7 (-112)

Moneyline

• Texans: -335
• Patriots: +270

Total

• 38.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Texans vs. Patriots Final Score Prediction

This is a brutal spot to put Maye in for his first career start, as Houston ranks No. 5 in yards per play allowed this season and No. 4 in net yards per pass attempt allowed.

Still, Maye could be an upgrade over veteran Jacoby Brissett, who simply has not gotten enough done on offense for the Patriots to compete in some of their games.

Despite the quarterback change, NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan isn’t buying the Patriots. In fact, in his Road to 272 column, he shared why Houston is one of his favorite bets in Week 6: 

There are teams in the NFL that the Patriots can hang with. Those who have a run-first offense who also struggle to pressure the passer defensively. Unfortunately for New England, the Texans are quite the opposite of that.

The Texans' biggest strength on offense is their ability to air the ball out, which lines up well with the Patriots' biggest defensive weakness. New England ranks 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2) and 23rd in opponent Dropback EPA.

Offensively, the Patriots have the worst pressure rate in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett has been pressured on 31.4% of his dropbacks. That's terrible news for him considering the Texans rank sixth in sack percentage, sacking opposing quarterbacks on 9.26% of their dropbacks.

Maye could be in some trouble behind this New England offensive line, and I don’t expect many scoring drives from the Pats' offense after the Texans shut down Buffalo in Week 5.

Houston wins a low-scoring affair by two scores this week. 

Final Score Prediction: Texans 23, Patriots 10

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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