Texans vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 6

Iain MacMillan | Oct 8, 2024

Oct 6, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrates with running back Cam Akers (22) after a touchdown during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Texans declared themselves official contenders in the AFC by taking down the Buffalo Bills in Week 5 action. Now, they have a much weaker opponent infront of them in the New England Patriots, who have lost four-straight games and are now frontrunners to have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

With that in mind, nobody can feel too comfortable with the Texans this week considering how often big favorites have not only failed to cover the spread, but lost outright in these spots this season. Will it happen again this week?

Let's dive into the odds and everything else you need to know to bet on this AFC showdown.

Texans vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Texans -7 (-108)
• Patriots +7 (-112)

Moneyline

• Texans -330
• Patriots +265

Total

• OVER 37.5 (-110)
• UNDER 37.5 (-110)

Texans vs. Patriots How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 13
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Texans record: 4-1
• Patriots record: 1-4

Texans vs. Patriots Betting Trends

• Texans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the Texans' last five games
• Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. Patriots
• Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games
• The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams
• Patriots have lost seven straight home games

Texans vs. Patriots Injury Reports

Texans Injury Report

• British Brooks, RB - Doubtful
• Christian Harris, LB - IR-R
• Dameon Pierce, RB - Questionable
• Tytus Howard, OT - Questionable
• Jake Hansen, LB - Questionable
• Joe Mixon, RB - Questionable
• Nico Collins, WR - Questionable
• Jimmie Ward, S - Questionable

Patriots Injury Report

• David Andrews, C - IR
• K.J. Osborn, WR - Questionable
• Kyle Dugger, S - Questionable
• Jabrill Peppers, S - Questionable
• Caedan Wallace, OT - Questionable

Texans vs. Patriots Key Players to Watch

Houston Texans

Stefon Diggs: With Nico Collins likely to miss this week's game, it's time for Stefon Diggs to step up and be the team's No. 1 WR while Collins is sidelined. He's already has a strong start to his season. He doesn't have the yards Collins does, but he has just one fewer reception with 31 and he's found the end zone twice. Let's see if he can take his game one step up this Sunday.

New England Patriots

Antonio Gibson: The Patriots' running back has been effective since New England has started to give him some carries. He has 207 yards on 35 carries, averaging 5.9 yards per rush. If he can keep producing at that level, a one-two punch with him and Rhamondre Stevenson is going to give some teams some issues.

Texans vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

Big favorites haven't covered at a high rate this season, but I think this is going to be a great opportunity for some regression to the mean in that area. I broke down the pick in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets":

There are teams in the NFL that the Patriots can hang with. Those who have a run-first offense also struggle to pressure the passer defensively. Unfortunately for New England, the Texans are quite the opposite of that.

The Texans' biggest strength on offense is their ability to air the ball out, which lines up well with the Patriots' biggest defensive weakness. New England ranks 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2) and 23rd in opponent Dropback EPA.

Offensively, the Patriots have the worst pressure rate in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett has been pressured on 31.4% of his dropbacks. That's terrible news for him considering the Texans rank sixth in sack percentage, sacking opposing quarterbacks on 9.26% of their dropbacks.

This is a terrible matchup for an already bad Patriots team. I'll lay the touchdown with the Texans.

Pick: Texans -7 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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