Texas State vs. Troy Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Reed Wallach | Sep 30, 2024

Sep 2, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Texas State Bobcats head coach G.J. Kinne on the sidelines during the first half against the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images / Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Texas State emerged as a possible Group of Five College Football Playoff contender but has fallen on tough times quickly. 

The Bobcats sputtered late against Sam Houston on a neutral site in Week 5, its first game out of its BYE week, making it two straight losses for the high-octane offense. 

Texas State now must get back on track quickly as Sun Belt play starts on the road against a Troy team that is far different from its two straight conference titles in 2022 and 2023. Can G.J. Kinne’s bunch get going in a meaningful matchup? 

Here’s our betting preview for Thursday’s Week 6 matchup.

Texas State vs. Troy Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Texas State: -14.5 (-105)
• Troy: +14.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Texas State: -650
• Troy: +500

Total: 58 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas State vs. Troy How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, October 3rd
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPNU
• Texas State Record: 2-2
• Troy Record: 1-4

Texas State vs. Troy Key Players to Watch

Texas State

Jordan McCloud: McCloud has been excellent for the most part in his first season in San Marcos, passing for 1,141 yards with 12 touchdowns through the air and only three interceptions. The reigning Sun Belt player of the year from James Madison is looking like he is even better this season. 

Troy

Goose Crowder: Good luck figuring out the Troy quarterback situation. Crowder, the team’s starter heading into the season, got hurt for the second time this season on the game's first drive. The Trojans went to back up Tucker Kilcrease against Louisiana-Monroe, who also got hurt. It’s unclear either players status on a short week, but if neither can go, it’ll be third-stringer Matthew Caldwell, a Gardner-Webb transfer, who saw time against both Memphis and Iowa. 

Texas State vs. Troy Prediction and Pick

It’s tough to get a gauge on the Troy quarterback situation, which can be in dire conditions heading into this matchup against an aggressive Texas State defense. 

The Bobcats have 15 sacks on the season and rank seventh in EPA/Pass. While explosive plays have crushed the unit, Troy is devoid of serious playmakers who can rip off chunk plays, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush. 

Of course, the Trojans can be down to a third string quarterback on a short week. 

This is setting up for a big effort from Texas State’s offense, which has scored at least 28 points in each game this season. Meanwhile, this is a brutal setup for Troy, who has quarterback questions all over and is finishing up a brutal start to its season. The Trojans had nonconference games against the likes of Memphis and Iowa, and there was no BYE week yet to rest up with a fairly fresh Bobcats team coming to town. 

PICK: Texas State (-14.5)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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