Texas vs. Arizona State Final Score Prediction for College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Reed Wallach | Dec 30, 2024

Dec 7, 2024; Arlington, TX, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) and offensive lineman Leif Fautanu (79) and quarterback Sam Leavitt (10) celebrate during the game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Arizona State Sun Devils at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Texas and Arizona State meet in the Peach Bowl which will serve as the first of three games on New Year’s Day as part of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. 

The Longhorns took care of business in the first round against Clemson, and are even bigger favorites on a neutral field against Big 12 Champion Arizona State, who is led by elite running back Cam Skattebo. 

Can Arizona State keep it competitive against Texas? Or will the Longhorns' big talent advantage prove to be too much to overcome? 

Texas vs. Arizona State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Texas: -13.5 (-115)
• Arizona State: +13.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Texas: -600
• Arizona State: +430

Total: 51.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick

There is a clear talent gap between the two teams, but don’t count out the Sun Devils, who have maximized it's talent all season under head coach Kenny Dillingham. Here’s what I had to say in our betting preview for this one. 

The issue for the Sun Devils is how the team competes down-to-down as the team will be without wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who suffered a shoulder injury in the regular season finale. Arizona State has been able to post a top 20 EPA/Play mark with its ability to scheme players open downfield and a Big 12 schedule, but this is a significant step up in competition. 

However, I believe we see Arizona State show some life early in this one. We saw Clemson put together a strong opening script in the first round and I believe that with extra rest ASU can show life early with the ability to use Leavitt in the quarterback run game and the bruising Skattebo early. 

Meanwhile, the Texas offense should have plenty of time to operate in this one. The ASU rush defense is elite, top 20 in EPA/Rush, but the pass rush is bottom 10 in the country, per Pro Football Focus. 

Texas could be in for a strong passing game, the weak point of the Arizona State defense, who is stout against the run. 

While Texas crushed Clemson with its run game in the first round, this game will likely focus more on the Longhorns passing game against Arizona State’s defense which is about the national average in EPA/Pass and rates worse in sacks. 

The key here will be can ASU stop the Longhorns in the red zone? The Sun Devils are outside the top 100 in red zone touchdown percentage allowed, something the Longhorns have struggled with at times but excelled for the most part against Clemson. 

Count on a competitive start from Arizona State before the Longhorns talent wins out and moves onto the semifinals. 

Final Score Prediction: Texas 34, Arizona State 24

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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