Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for SEC Tournament Quarterfinal

Iain MacMillan | Mar 14, 2025

Tennessee is a double-digit favorite against Texas in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

It took two overtimes, but the Texas Longhorns eventually got past Texas A&M in the second round of the SEC tournament and have earned the right to take on Tennessee in the quarterfinal.

This will be the Vols' first tournament game after enjoying a double-BYE. They enter the tournament as the No. 8 ranked team in the country and are a strong candidate to win the conference tournament. To do that, they'll need to stop Texas from pulling off yet another upset.

Let's dive into the odds for this afternoon's orange on orange showdown.

Texas vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Texas +10.5 (-115)
• Tennessee -10.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Texas +400
• Tennessee -550

Total

• OVER 135.5 (-110)
• UNDER 135.5 (-110)

Texas vs. Tennessee How to Watch

• Date: Friday. March 14
• Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
• Venue: Bridgestone Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Texas Record: 19-14 (6-12 Conference)
• Tennessee Record: 25-6 (12-6 Conference)

Texas vs. Tennessee Best Prop Bets

Texas Prop Bet

• Tre Johnson OVER 17.5 Points (-120) via BetMGM

Texas fell short by four points the last time these teams faced off, but Tre Johnson had a massive game. He put up 26 points including going 4-of-8 from beyond the arc. He has also been hot in the first two games of the SEC tournament, putting up 19 points against Vanderbilt and 20 points against Texas A&M.

Tennessee Prop Bet

• Igor Milicic OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-135) via BetMGM

Igor Milicic is averaging 7.3 rebounds per game and now he gets to face a Texas team that ranks 149th in rebounding percentage. This seems like a great opportunity for him to have a solid day on the boards, yet his rebounding total is set at just 5.5 rebounds. I'll take the OVER.

Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

I held the belief heading into the tournament that Texas was on the bad side of variance a lot this season and are much better than their record, and the betting market, says they are.

For example, Texas ranks 99th in effective field goal percentage at 52.6% while Tennessee ranks only slightly ahead of them at 88th at 52.9%. Defensively, the Vols have a clear advantage ranking fourth in the country in defensive efficiency, but Texas is no slouch either, ranking just outside the top 100 in all of college basketball.

It's not like Texas plays undisciplined basketball either. They come into today's game ranking 92nd in the country in extra scoring chances per game, averaging +1.9.

I don't think Tennessee is deserving of being a double-digit favorite in this spot. I'll take the side getting the points.

Pick: Texas +10.5 (-115) via BetMGM

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