Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, March 16

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Oklahoma City Thunder-Milwaukee Bucks matchup on Sunday, March 16.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

An NBA Cup rematch on Sunday?

The final game on the March 16 slate is in Milwaukee, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and company take on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Milwaukee got the better of the Thunder in the NBA Cup Final, but OKC picked up a 29-point win at home against the Bucks earlier in the regular season. Now, Milwaukee will aim to return the favor as a home underdog on Sunday.

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for this primetime matchup. 

Thunder vs. Bucks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder -5.5 (-108)
• Bucks +5.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Thunder: -205
• Bucks: +170

Total

• 232.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Thunder vs. Bucks How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 16
• Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Fiserv Forum
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Thunder record: 55-12
• Bucks record: 38-28

Thunder vs. Bucks Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Bucks Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Thunder vs. Bucks Best NBA Prop Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 34.5 Points (-105)

Earlier this season, SGA scored 34 points in less than 23 minutes in a blowout win over Milwaukee, and the Bucks rank dead last in the NBA in points per game allowed to the point guard position.

There may not be a better matchup for the MVP favorite in the entire league. Plus, fresh off of a 48-point game on Saturday night, SGA is averaging 35.4 points per game since the All-Star break (12 games). He’s worth a shot in this market in what could be a high-scoring affair. 

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Kyle Kuzma UNDER 12.5 Points (-105)

The Thunder have the No. 1 defense in the NBA this season, and Kuzma is struggling as of late, scoring less than 13 points in six of his last 10 games, averaging 11.6 points per game while shooting 27.3 percent from 3 during that stretch.

I’m not sold on him having a big game against wing defenders like Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and others. 

Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams are in the top 10 in the league in net rating over their last 10 games, and it’s been strong defense – especially on the Milwaukee side – that has gotten them there.

The Bucks are just 14th in offensive rating over that stretch, but they’re now fifth in the league in defensive rating over their last 10.

OKC has been the No. 1 defense in the league for most of the 2024-25 season, so it’s not surprising that it is amongst the leaders over the last 10 games. 

While this total has soared up over 230, the NBA Cup Final between these teams was a slugfest with neither squad reaching 100 points.

In their last matchup, the Thunder and Bucks combined for just 221 points in OKC.  

Ultimately, it’ll be important to see the injury reports for both teams (since they’re both playing the second night of a back-to-back), but I lean with a lower-scoring game based on how well these teams are defending at the moment. 

Pick: UNDER 232.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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