Thunder vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Nikola Jokic, Alex Caruso)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Oklahoma City Thunder-Denver Nuggets matchup on Thursday.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets were the two top teams in the Western Conference during the regular season in the 2023-24 campaign, and they’ll face off on Thursday in their season opener. 

Oddsmakers are expecting this to be a close game, setting Denver as a two-point favorite, but betting on this matchup in the prop market could be the way to go. 

With Isaiah Hartenstein out with a hand injury for Oklahoma City, three-time league MVP Nikola Jokic could dominate this game on the glass.

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite props for this Western Conference showdown. 

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thunder vs. Nuggets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Nikola Jokic OVER 13.5 Rebounds (+105)
• Alex Caruso UNDER 4.5 Assists (-145)

Nikola Jokic OVER 13.5 Rebounds (+105)

Nikola Jokic averaged 12.4 rebounds per game last season, but this is a dream matchup against an OKC team that ranked 28th in the NBA in rebounding percentage last season.

A big reason for the Hartenstein addition was to compete against bigger centers on the glass, since Chet Holmgren isn’t the greatest rebounder and has a slighter build at the center spot. 

In his last 10 games against OKC, Jokic has four games with 14 or more boards, averaging 12.2 rebounds per game. 

This is a little bit of a risk since 13.5 is such a massive number, but the Joker should be hovering around this prop in a normal game since he averaged nearly 12.5 boards last season. 

Alex Caruso UNDER 4.5 Assists (-145)

I can’t get behind this assist prop for Alex Caruso, even if the new Thunder guard has a bigger on-ball role when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is off the court.

In his career, Caruso averaged 2.9 assists per game, never averaging more than 4.0 assists per game in a single season.

SGA and Jalen Williams are going to be the primary ball-handlers for this Thunder squad, and I don’t see Caruso filling the Josh Giddey playmaking void in this offense.

During the preseason, Caruso had 13 assists in five games, clearing 4.5 dimes on just one occasion. 

This number is way too high for the veteran in his first game with the Thunder.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.