Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Jan. 29

The Thunder and Warriors have split their first two matchups this season, but OKC is heavily favored on Wednesday night.

The Thunder and Warriors have split their first two matchups this season, but OKC is heavily favored on Wednesday night. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to extend their lead in the Western Conference on Wednesday when they hit the road to play Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors.

Golden State is coming off a win over the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night, but it is just .500 on the season and 11-20 in its last 31 games. As a result, oddsmakers have set Golden State as a massive 10-point underdog in this matchup.

The Thunder won the last matchup between these teams (105-101), but Golden State did take the first meeting earlier in the season. It’s also worth noting that Curry did not play in the Warriors’ loss to OKC this season. 

Still, Oklahoma City has the No. 1 defense in the league and has been elite against the spread when favored, going 11-7-2 as a road favorite. Does that trend continue tonight?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction for this Western Conference battle. 

Thunder vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder -10 (-115)
• Warriors +10 (-105)

Moneyline

• Thunder: -440
• Warriors: +340

Total

• 228 (Over -108/Under -112)

Thunder vs. Warriors How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Jan. 29
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Thunder record: 37-8
• Warriors record: 23-23

Thunder vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Chet Holmgren – out
• Dillon Jones – out
• Ajay Mitchell – out
• Nikola Topic – out

Warriors Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Thunder vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-125)

Oklahoma City Thunder big man Isaiah Hartenstein continues to dominate on the glass, averaging 12.2 rebounds per game on a whopping 21.3 rebounding chances.

Now, Hartenstein gets to face the Warriors, who are playing the second night of a back-to-back on Wednesday. He already has a 14-rebound game against Golden State on his resume this season, and Hartenstein has 11 or more boards in 17 of his 25 games this season.

After missing time with a calf injury, Hartenstein played more than 32 minutes and grabbed 12 boards on Sunday against the Portland Trail Blazers. 

With the Warriors ranking 21st in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game – and lacking any true size in their frontcourt – I expect Hartenstein to have a field day on the boards tonight. 

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Steph Curry OVER 6.5 Assists (-110)

If Draymond Green (calf) sits out again, this could be a huge game for Steph Curry when it comes to his assists prop. In eight games without Green this season, Curry is averaging 8.5 assists per game, clearing 6.5 in seven of those matchups.

On top of that, Curry has seven or more dimes in five of his last seven games. He has only faced OKC once this season, but he finished that matchup with seven assists. I love him at this number on Wednesday. 

Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared my favorite bet for this game in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points: 

After knocking off the Utah Jazz (without Steph Curry) on Tuesday night, the Warriors are home underdogs on Wednesday against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder.

I’m not looking to a side in this matchup, but instead focusing on the total.

So far this season, the Warriors are 5-2 to the UNDER on the second night of a back-to-back, and they’ve fallen off on offense (18th in the league over their last 15 games) as of late.

Plus, these teams are both top 10 in the league in defensive rating and opponent points per game with OKC ranking No. 1 in both of those categories. 

The Thunder have played some higher-scoring games as of late, but Golden State may look to slow things down since Jonathan Kuminga and Draymond Green have been out of the lineup recently with injuries. The Warriors are just 17th in the league in pace this season. 

Overall, the Warriors are 25-21 to the UNDER this season, and the Thunder are 10-9-1 to the UNDER when set as a road favorite. 

Pick: UNDER 228 (-112)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.