Tigers vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for AL Wild Card Game 1 (How to Bet Total)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Game 1 matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros in the AL Wild Card.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) celebrates. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The MLB Playoffs will get underway on Tuesday afternoon in Houston with the Houston Astros and Jose Altuve hosting the Detroit Tigers and AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal in a best-of-three series.

Skubal will get the ball in Game 1 for the Tigers, who completely came out of nowhere over the final stretch of the regular season to steal the final wild card spot from the Minnesota Twins. 

Meanwhile, Houston locked up the AL West early last week, giving it plenty of time to prepare for this series. 

The Astros have been perennial contenders since winning the World Series in 2017, and they’ll look to advance to the ALDS against the Cleveland Guardians by taking care of business at home against Detroit. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch, probable pitchers, and – of course – my best bet for Tuesday’s series opener.  

Tigers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Tigers +1.5 (-205)
• Astros -1.5 (+170)

Moneyline

• Tigers: +110
• Astros: -130

Total

• 6.5 (Over +102/Under -122)

Tigers vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• Detroit: Tarik Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA)
• Houston: Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA)

Tigers vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 1
• Time: 2:30 p.m. EST 
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: Tied 0-0 

Tigers vs. Astros Key Players to Watch

Detroit Tigers

Tarik Skubal: Skubal has been arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball this season, posting a 2.39 ERA and leading the Tigers to a 21-10 record in his starts. He threw seven innings of two-hit, no-run ball in his final outing of the regular season, but Skubal did allow six runs in 12.2 innings across two starts against Houston this season. 

Houston Astros

Jose Altuve: A playoff performer at the highest level, Altuve is a career .273 hitter in postseason play with 27 homers and 55 runs batted in. He’s not the only player to watch, as Houston has a lot of playoff experience (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, and more) on its roster. 

Tigers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

The issue in this game is going to be Detroit’s offense – and it’ll likely be an issue all series long.

Detroit comes into Game 1 as the No. 26 team in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching, a major problem when facing Valdez (2.91 ERA) who was lights out in August and September. 

Over those two months, the Astros ace posted a 1.65 ERA while leading Houston to a 7-2 record in nine starts.

That being said, I’m not fading Skubal here either – even against a Houston team that ranks sixth in MLB in OPS against lefties. 

Instead, I’m looking to the total in a crucial Game 1 where all hands should be on deck for both teams. Winning Game 1 in a best-of-three series is vital, so don’t be shocked if both teams are willing to go to their best bullpen arms right away once these starters exit. 

On the season, Houston is the second-best UNDER team in MLB (90-65-6), and even with a total all the way down at 6.5, we have the starting pitchers in this matchup that could make an UNDER happen.

I’ll trust both Skubal and Valdez to pitch well on Tuesday afternoon. 

Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-122)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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