Tigers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Thursday, Sept. 5 (Trust Padres at Home)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Detroit Tigers-San Diego Padres matchup on Thursday night.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Martin Perez. / Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres are red hot, winning three straight games and seven of their last 10 to pull within 4.5 games of first place in the NL West.

On Thursday night, the Padres will look to close out the Detroit Tigers, who are .500 on the season, and have youngster Casey Mize on the mound for his second start since coming off the injured list.

The Padres are the top wild card in the National League, but they have to keep winning to hold off the Arizona Diamondbacks, who sit just half a game back of that spot. 

Let’s dive into the odds, key players to watch and more for Thursday night’s contest. 

Tigers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

• Tigers +1.5 (-155)
• Padres -1.5 (+130)

Moneyline

• Tigers: +136
• Padres: -162

Total

• 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tigers vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Detroit: Casey Mize (2-6, 4.25 ERA)
• San Diego: Martin Perez (4-5, 4.71 ERA)

Tigers vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 5
• Time: 8:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Detroit, MLB Extra Innings
• Tigers record: 70-70
• Padres record: 80-61

Tigers vs. Padres Key Players to Watch

Detroit Tigers

Casey Mize: The young righty is making his second start since returning from the injured list, and he’s coming off a six-inning performance where he allowed four runs (three earned) and struck out four. How will he fare against a tough San Diego offense? 

San Diego Padres

Martin Perez: Since being acquired at the trade deadline, Perez has a 3.41 ERA across six starts, leading the Padres to a 6-0 record in those matchups. The veteran lefty could thrive against a Detroit team that is 23rd in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching in 2024. 

Tigers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

The Padres have thrived in Perez’s starts, and to his credit, he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in five of his six starts since coming over at the deadline.

The Tigers have been solid in Mize’s starts as well, going 9-8 straight up, but can we trust him in just his second start back?

I’m worried about the Tigers giving Mize enough run support – they rank 23rd in OPS against lefties and 22nd in runs per game – to hold off this surging Padres squad.

San Diego is solid at home, going seven games over .500 on the season, while the Tigers are a game below .500 on the road.

I lean with the Padres to pick up a fourth straight win in this one. 

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-162)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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