Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, March 12

The Timberwolves are 7-5 against the spread as road underdogs this season.

The Timberwolves are 7-5 against the spread as road underdogs this season. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Wednesday features a rematch from last season’s playoffs in the Western Conference, as the Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards.

Minnesota won the first two meetings between these teams this season, and it’s on a huge winning streak at the moment, taking each of its last five games since Julius Randle returned to the lineup.

Denver, which holds the No. 2 seed in the West, is coming off a split with the Oklahoma City Thunder in back-to-back games on Sunday and Monday. The Nuggets dropped a smooth 140 points in Monday’s win behind yet another huge game from Nikola Jokic.

Minnesota ended Denver’s season in the 2023-24 campaign, and the Nuggets have yet to beat the Wolves since. Does that change tonight?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my game prediction for Wednesday, March 12. 

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Timberwolves +4 (-112)
• Nuggets -4 (-108)

Moneyline

• Timberwolves: +142
• Nuggets: -170

Total

• 235 (Over -112/Under -108)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets How to Watch 

• Date: Wednesday, March 12
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Ball Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Timberwolves record: 37-29
• Nuggets record: 42-23

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

• Jesse Edwards – out
• Rudy Gobert – questionable
• Tristen Newton – out
• Leonard Miller – out

Nuggets Injury Report

• Aaron Gordon – doubtful
• Nikola Jokic – probable
• Jamal Murray – probable
• DaRon Holmes II – out
• Julian Strawther – out

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

• Julius Randle OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (+100)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Julius Randle may be undervalued in the prop market for the Timberwolves: 

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5-0 since Julius Randle returned from injury, and the All-Star forward has stuffed the stat sheet in a big way since coming back.

Over this five-game stretch, Randle is averaging 17.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game, putting up 13 or more rebounds and assists in four consecutive matchups.

Overall, Randle is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game this season. He’s seen his potential assists per game jump to 9.8 over this five-game stretch, and I expect him to have a big role with the Denver Nuggets likely down Aaron Gordon (doubtful) on Wednesday night. 

Randle has 13, 19, 19 and 17 rebounds and assists in his last four games, so this number feels like a bit of a discount on Wednesday, especially against a Denver team that ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent assists per game.

Randle recorded 13 and 14 rebounds and assists in his first two meetings with Denver this season, dropping seven dimes in both of those matchups. 

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jamal Murray OVER 21.5 Points (-125)

In his last matchup against the Timberwolves, Murray put up a smooth 25 points, and he should be relied on even more on offense on Wednesday with Aaron Gordon listed as doubtful.

Murray has turned things around after a slow start to the season, averaging 26.3 points per game since returning from a one-game absence on Feb. 8. Over that 13-game stretch, Murray is attempting over 18 shots per game while shooting 51.5 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from 3. 

This is a tough matchup against a top-10 defense, but I think the usage for for Murray will be high enough where he clears this prop. 

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Minnesota is rolling right now, winning five games in a row since Randle returned to action, and I think it may be undervalued in this matchup.

While Denver is usually one of the best home teams in the NBA, the Timberwolves are an impressive 7-5 against the spread as road dogs, and they’ve already beaten the Nuggets twice this season.

In addition to that, the Nuggets are down a crucial piece of their rotation in Aaron Gordon, and arguably their best bench shooter in Strawther. 

Losing Gordon hurts Denver on both ends, and it has a defensive rating that is nearly two points per 100 possessions worse this season when Gordon sits. Denver is still 17-10 in those games, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this matchup come down to the wire.

As good as the Nuggets are on offense (top three in the league), the Timberwolves have been a top-10 defense this season. If Rudy Gobert is able to suit up, I like the depth that Minnesota has a ton in this game, as it can throw a plethora of lengthy defenders at Jamal Murray. 

Denver’s play without Gordon has been up and down, as evidenced by the back-to-back against OKC. 

I’ll take the points in this rivalry matchup on Wednesday. 

Pick: Timberwolves +4 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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