Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for New Year’s Eve (Dec. 31)

Will this be a low-scoring game between two of the NBA's best defenses?

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) forces a turn over by Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

After a slow start to the 2024-25 season, the Minnesota Timberwolves are showing some signs of life as of late. They’ve won three games in a row, including a Christmas Day road win over the Dallas Mavericks, heading into a New Year’s Eve clash with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder are an impressive 26-5 this season, dominating the No. 2-seeded Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday night with a 24-point win. OKC has a five-game cushion on the top spot in the West, and it enters this game as a favorite at home.

The Wolves (No. 8 in the West) have yet to play OKC this season, and they may be peaking at the right time for this matchup, ranking sixth in the NBA in defensive rating overall. 

This game should have a ton of fireworks with All-NBA guards Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on opposite sides, but how should we bet on it?

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to consider betting on in the prop market and my prediction for this divisional battle on the final day of the year. 

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Timberwolves +7.5 (-115)
• Thunder -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Timberwolves: +240
• Thunder: -298

Total

• 216.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Timberwolves vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Dec. 31
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
• Timberwolves record: 17-14
• Thunder record: 26-5

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

• Jaylen Clark – out
• Jesse Edwards – out
• Rob Dillingham – out
• Luka Garza – out
• Daishen Nix – questionable

Thunder Injury Report

• Alex Caruso – out
• Alex Ducas – out
• Adam Flagler – out
• Chet Holmgren – out
• Nikola Topic – out

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

• Donte DiVincenzo OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-120)

Don’t look now, but Donte DiVincenzo is starting to heat up with his new team after a dreadful start to the 2024-25 season.

Yes, DiVincenzo is still shooting just 38.9 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from 3, but over his last six games, he’s cleared this prop five times.

In that five-game stretch, the sharpshooter is averaging 3.7 made 3s on 7.5 attempts per game, shooting a blistering 48.9 percent from deep. He should get a decent amount of looks tonight with the Thunder likely keying in on Anthony Edwards defensively. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 5.5 Assists (-130)

An MVP candidate this season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.2 assists per game heading into this matchup.

While the Wolves have allowed the fourth-fewest opponent assists per game this season, I still think SGA is a solid bet to hit his season average tonight.

Not only do we know that Shai will have the ball in his hands a ton, but he’s cleared 5.5 dimes in 17 of his 31 games, averaging 12.5 potential assists per game. Minnesota likely wants to take SGA out of the game as a scorer, but the Thunder have the offensive weapons around the star guard to take advantage.

It’s rare to get a 5.5 on this prop, so I’ll gladly take advantage tonight. 

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

This game has “low-scoring” written all over it. 

The Thunder are the No. 1 defense in the NBA so far this season, and that’s led to them playing a bunch of low-scoring games, failing to clear 216.5 combined points in five of their last eight matchups.

On the season, OKC has hit the UNDER in 18 of its 32 games.

Now, the Thunder host a Minnesota team that is 9-7 to the UNDER on the road this season and profiles as a perfect team for this bet.

The Wolves – the No. 1 defense in the NBA last season – are No. 6 in the league in defensive rating in the 2024-25 campaign and just 21st in offensive rating. Not only that, but Minnesota doesn’t push the pace, ranking 25th in the NBA in that metric. 

Overall, these are two of the top four scoring defenses in the NBA. 

I’m expecting a defensive slug fest on New Year’s Eve. 

Pick: UNDER 216.5 (-118)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.