Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Predictions, Pick and Odds for UFC 304

Plus-money best bet for the co-main event.

Curtis Blaydes (red gloves) and Tom Aspinall (blue gloves). / Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

The co-main event of UFC 304, where the Interim heavyweight title is up for grabs, is technically a rematch between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. Their first bout ended in disappointment, with Aspinall’s knee exploding when he threw a kick fifteen seconds into the first round.

After not fighting for a year while rehabbing, Aspinall picked up right where he left off pre-injury (he was on an eight-fight win streak), knocking out Marcin Tybura in just over a minute in July of last year, and winning the interim strap also with a knockout against Sergei Pavlovich.

With many in the MMA world believing that Aspinall is the true heavyweight king due to the absence of Jon Jones, this fight against Blaydes could go a long way to put pressure on Dana White to remove the interim tag with a dominant performance.

Curtis Blaydes is a fighter on a different trajectory. After his win due to injury against Aspinall, Blaydes was knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich in April 2023 but got back in the win column with a second KO of Jaitlon Almeida in March. With a loss here against Aspinall, it would be hard for Blaydes to remain in the title discussion.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Odds and Round Total (odds via DraftKings)

Moneyline: Tom Aspinall -410, Curtis Blaydes +320

Total rounds: 1.5 (Over +140/Under -180)

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Best Bet

These fighters come from a strong wrestling background and early in both of their UFC careers they were labeled as "grapplers." Recently it seems they are eager to remove that label from their bio and replace it with “well rounded” as both have made a point to improve the striking component of their games. There is some credence to the well-rounded argument as both of their last wins came by early-round knockouts.

With that being said, I do not expect an early firefight here as I think they will both be looking to protect their chins while feinting takedowns as they figure out each other’s timing. While most times in a heavyweight fight it is wise not to blink as a knockout can happen at any moment, these guys are both from the “new school” of more athletic, well-rounded heavyweights and both have excellent cardio.

The almost 2-1 line seems way too pricey due to these factors and I could easily see this fight making it into the later championship rounds. I'll take the value in it to at least make it to round 2.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds +140