Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 18 (Bet on Jordan Addison to Go Deep vs. Lions)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 2, 2025

Bet on Jordan Addison to catch a deep ball vs. Lions in Week 18 / David Reginek-Imagn Images

We squeaked out a small profit in the penultimate edition of the Player Prop Countdown, finishing with a 5-4-1 record for +0.43 units in Week 17.

We need a near perfect week in Week 18 to finish the season with a profit and while that's unlikely to happen, I'm going to take a swing at pulling it off. The final week of the season can be tough to bet on due to the uncertainty around which teams will play their starters and for how long, therefore I'm generally sticking to games that have some meaning.

Let's start the final countdown of the 2024 NFL season.

• Player Prop Season-to-Date Record: 82-86-2 (-5.97 units)

Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 18

10) Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 197.5 Pass Yards (-120) via DraftKings

Sean McVay has announced that Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting at quarterback in place of Matthew Stafford and while many people believe that's a big drop off at the position, I'm not part of that camp. Stafford has managed to average 235.1 passing yards per game this season despite his advanced metrics being less than impressive. Garoppolo has the ability to still put up some numbers in this offense.

Let's also remember the Rams are still playing for the No. 3 seed in the NFC Playoffs. McVay may rest starters, but I still expect him to come out firing with his backups.

9) Caleb Williams OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-109) via Caesars

Caleb Williams has only thrown six interceptions this season, but I'm willing to bet he throws a seventh on Sunday. The Packers' secondary has been fantastic of late, ranking third in the NFL in opponent dropback EPA since Week 11, while also averaging 1.0 interceptions per game this season.

The Bears have been going down swinging this season and Williams has averaged 33 pass attempts per game in their last three outings. If that continues against the Packers, Green Bay is going to have plenty of opportunities to grab a pick.

8) Jordan Addison Longest Receptions OVER 23.5 Yards (-120) via FanDuel

The Lions' secondary is depleted, suffering several injuries in key positions. As a result, they've allowed plenty of deep passes in recent weeks and have now allowed the second most passing plays of 20+ yards this season with 60.

Jordan Addison has hauled in at least one reception of 24+ yards in seven of his 14 games this season including recording a 51-yard catch against the Lions in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Now that Detroit is banged up, I expect another long catch from Addison on Sunday night.

7) Bijan Robinson OVER 94.5 Rush Yards (-117) via Caesars

Bijan Robinson has had a strong end to his season, rushing for 90+ yards in five straight games ahead of the Falcons' season finale against the Panthers, a game in which they have to win to have any shot of making the playoffs.

He has a favorable matchup ahead of him in the Panthers. Carolina ranks dead last in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate since Week 11 while also allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season, the most in the NFL.

He ran for 95 yards on just 15 carries against the Panthers earlier this season, there's no reason he can't repeat that feat in Week 18.

6) Kyle Pitts Anytime Touchdown (+295) via Caesars

Michael Penix Jr. has targeted his tight end multiple times in his two starts, including last week when he hit him four times including once for the game-tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Now, the Falcons face a Panthers defense that has allowed the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends (11) in the NFL this season. At almost 3-1 odds, Pitts is worth a bet to find the end zone once again.

5) Jerry Jeudy OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards (-120) via DraftKings

Bailey Zappe will bet on getting the start for the Browns this week, which could provide a boost to the Browns' passing game considering it'll be hard to be worse than Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been in recent weeks.

If they target Jeudy any where close to 18 times again in the season finale, he should have no issue reaching 49+ yards through the air.

4) Malik Nabers Longest Reception UNDER 22.5 Yards (-113) via Caesars

The Philadelphia Eagles have been extremely effective on defense preventing explosive pass plays from their opponents. In fact, they lead the NFL in opponent passing plays of 20+ yards, allowing just 34 this season. That means they have a great chance of keeping Malik Nabers in check.

Nabers has recorded a receptions of 23+ yards in just six games this season. In his first start against the Eagles, his longest catch was 14 yards.

3) Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 87.5 Rush Yards (-114) via FanDuel

Jahmyr Gibbs has thrived in the absence of David Montgomery, reaching 100+ yards in two straight starts. He's now averaging a blistering 5.61 yards per carry on the season and I expect that to continue against the Vikings.

Gibbs ran of 116 yards on just 15 carries against the Vikings earlier this season and the once stout Minnesota run defense has started to struggle of late. They rank 13th in opponent rush success rate since Week 11.

2) Bucky Irving OVER 84.5 Rush Yards (-120) via DraftKings

The Saints have had a ton of issues stopping the run lately and they now allow the second most yards per carry at 4.9. That will set up Bucky Irving to have a huge game against them in a must-win spot for Tampa Bay.

Irving has ran for 100+ yards in three of his last five starts and he's now averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has also turned to him has its featured runner of the ball as he's recorded 15+ carries in three straight games entering Week 18.

1) Jaylen Warren OVER 63.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) via DraftKings

Jaylen Warren has started to take over as the primary running back for the Steelers and it's resulted in some great production from him the past two weeks. He recorded 112 and 92 yards from scrimmage the past two weeks, serving as a weapon both on the ground and through the air.

Now he gets to face a Bengals defense that's 27th in opponent rush EPA and 29th in opponent rush success rate since Week 11. As long as he continues to get the majority of touches for the Steelers backfield, I think he crushes this number on Saturday night.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!