Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props (It's Time to Fade the Maple Leafs)

Iain MacMillan | Mar 13, 2025

The Maple Leafs are home underdogs to the Panthers on Thursday night. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The NHL season marches on and we have a loaded slate of games set to take place on Thursday night, including a potential playoff preview between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers.

I'm backing two road teams tonight along with a player prop. Let's dive into them.

• Season-to-date record: 131-131-7 (-8.32 units)

Top NHL Picks and Props Today

• Panthers -118 vs. Maple Leafs via FanDuel
• Blues -120 vs. Penguins via Caesars
• Tyler Toffoli OVER 3.5 Shots on Goal (+136) via FanDuel

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

Now is the time to fade the Maple Leafs, as metrics are starting to show they're in for some regression. Over each team's last 25 games, the Maple Leafs rank 31st in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage. Only the Blackhawks rank worse over that stretch. Tonight, they have to face the team the leads that category over the same time frame, the Florida Panthers.

If you were to look at metrics alone, this could be a one-sided affair. I'll jump at the chance to back the Panthers as slight favorites in this Atlantic Division showdown.

Pick: Panthers -118

Blues vs. Penguins Prediction

The St. Louis Blues have been playing some of their best hockey of the season of late, especially defensively. Over their last 25 games, they rank fourth in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals against. They'll face the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight, who have struggled to find the back of the net lately, ranking 31st in shooting percentage over the last 25 games, finding the back of the net on just 8.66% of shots on goal.

A bad shooting team taking on a team that's been one of the best defensive squads in the league is a recipe for disaster. I'll back the Blues to get the job done in Pittsburgh tonight.

Pick: Blues -120

Blackhawks vs. Sharks Prop Bet

I'm going to continue what has been a successful strategy lately which has been taking the over on a player's shot total who is facing the Chicago Blackhawks. The Blackhawks have allowed 34.1 shots on goal per 60 minutes over their last 25 games, which is 1.64 more than the next worst team.

The player I'm going to target to take advantage of that is Tyler Toffoli, who has been a shooting machine of late, combining for 12 shots on goal in his last two games. I love this prop at plus-money.

Pick: Tyler Toffoli OVER 3.5 Shots on Goal (+136)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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