Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Back Stars at Home vs. Avalanche)

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

The Stars are home favorites to the Avalanche on Friday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

After a horrific stretch of picks, we have found some momentum, going 4-0-1 in my last five to get my season-to-date record back in the green.

Let's keep that going on Friday with a loaded slate of games. The NHL took Thursday off, but they're coming in hot on Black Friday with games starting in the afternoon and going all day, capping off with a late-night showdown between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche.

As per usual, I have three bets locked in that I'll break down in this article.

• Season-to-date record: 51-47-4 (+0.81 units)

Best NHL Picks Today

• Canucks -120 vs. Sabres via BetMGM
• Jets vs. Golden Knights OVER 6 (-112) via DraftKings
• Stars -122 vs. Avalanche via FanDuel

Canucks vs. Sabres Prediction

The Canucks have sneakily been one of the better defensive teams in the NHL this season, ranking third in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes. That's going going to prove to be pivotal against a Sabres team that ranks just 21st in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes.

On top of playing great in their own end during 5-on-5 play, they're also one of the best shooting teams, ranking fourth in 5-on-5 shooting percentage scoring on 10.33% of their shots on goal. Their powerplay unit needs some work, but if they can get a solid performance between the pipes, they should be the far superior team during 5-on-5 play. That's good enough to get the win as slight road favorites.

Pick: Canucks -120

Jets vs. Golden Knights Prediction

The total of this game is at 6.0 likely because of the strong goaltending matchup in this game, but we can't look past the fact these are two of the best shooting teams in the NHL. They rank third and fourth in the NHL in shooting percentage and they're scoring a combined 7.59 goals per 60 minutes of play.

I don't care who's playing goalie, I'm taking the OVER on a 6.0 total in a game involving two teams that can score at as high of a rate as the Jets and Golden Knights.

Pick: OVER 6 (-112)

Avalanche vs. Stars Prediction

The Colorado Avalanche have a goaltending problem. They're dead last in the NHL in save percentage, stopping just 85.76% of shots on goal. Now they have to face a Stars team that creates 13.04 high-danger scoring chances per 60, the third most in the NHL. That's a dangerous situation for Colorado to be in. The Avs may need to pop plenty of goals just to keep pace with the Stars in this one.

I'll back the Stars as small home favorites in a game they should be able to fill the net.

Pick: Stars -122

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!