Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Bet Capitals to Beat Maple Leafs)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 13, 2024

Mar 20, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) controls the puck as Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (88) defends during the first period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images / Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Five unanswered goals by the Seattle Kraken crushed our hopes of having a profitable Tuesday night in the NHL, but we're back on Wednesday to attack the five-game slate.

I have my top three bets locked in, including a bet against my own team, the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have been playing some horrifically bad hockey of late. Let's dive into it.

• Season-to-date Record: 36-24-3 (+9.15 units)

Top NHL Picks Today

• Penguins -138 vs. Red Wings via FanDuel
• Capitals -125 vs. Maple Leafs via FanDuel
• Kings +120 vs. Avalanche via BetMGM

Red Wings vs. Penguins Prediction

The Penguins have been able to create plenty of offense this season, but they've been so bad in their own end that it hasn't mattered. They're allowing the fourth most 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes. Fortunately for them, the Red Wings aren't a team that can capitalize on poor defense.

The Red Wings are scoring the fourth fewest goals per game at 2.43 per 60 minutes while also creating the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances at 9.43 per game.

This should be a great matchup for the Penguins, so I'll back Pittsburgh on its home ice on Wednesday.

Pick: Penguins -138

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals Prediction

The Maple Leafs have been playing some bad hockey at times this season and they've been even worse since Auston Matthews has been out of the lineup. They're now just 17th in CORSI% and ninth in expected goals percentage. Now that they're on the second half of a back-to-back after being embarrassed by the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday night, they're in a tough spot against an overperforming Capitals team.

The Capitals come into this game ranking third in both expected goal differential and actual goal differential per 60 minutes.

Pick: Capitals -125

Kings vs. Avalanche Prediction

There are few teams I'd not bet the Kings against when Los Angeles is the underdog. They have been playing some elite hockey lately, leading the NHL in expected goal differential at +0.67 per 60 minutes of play.

The Avalanche have also had some horrific goaltending this season. If Alexander Georgiev gets the start tonight, he has an abysmal .862 save percentage and 3.76 goals against average on the year.

I'll back the Kings as underdogs in Colorado tonight.

Pick: Kings +120

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!