Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Bet Golden Knights to Upset Oilers)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 6, 2024

Apr 10, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Vegas Golden Knights forward Pavel Dorofeyev (16) protects the puck from Edmonton Oilers defensemen Cody Ceci (5) during the second period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images / Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

We took a small step back yesterday, going 1-1-1 for -0.21 units with my Tuesday picks, but not every day can be a winning day.

We move on to Wednesday's NHL action and with only three games to watch, I have a bet locked in on each of them including a bet on the Golden Knights to upset the Oilers in Edmonton. Let's dive into it.

Season-to-date record: 28-15-3 (+11.12 units)

Best NHL Bets Today

• Capitals -120 vs. Predators via BetMGM
• Red Wings vs. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 (-124) via FanDuel
• Golden Knights +100 vs. Oilers via Caesars

Predators vs. Capitals Prediction

The Washington Capitals continue to be one of my favorite teams to bet on this season and I don't think the market has correctly adjusted for how well they've been playing. They enter tonight's game ranking fourth in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage. They'll face a Predators team that ranks just 15th in that stat.

The most damning evidence for the Predators has been their inability to put the puck in the net. They've scored on just 7.42% of shots on goal this season, the third lowest rate in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Capitals come in at third, scoring on 14.11% of shots on goal.

I'll back the Caps as home favorites tonight.

Pick: Capitals -120

Red Wings vs. Blackhawks Prediction

The Red Wings and Blackhawks have been two of the worst offensive teams in the NHL this season. They enter tonight's game ranking 27th and 32nd in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes of play. They're also combining for just 5.39 total goals scored per 60 minutes this season, well below the set total of 6.5 for tonight's game.

Bet on this being a low-scoring affair.

Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-124)

Golden Knights vs. Oilers Prediction

The Oilers continue to have plenty of issues and the two main areas they lack in are strengths of the Golden Knights. First off, the Oilers have the worst penalty kill in the NHL, allowing opponents to score on 40% of powerplays against them. Now, they have to face the third best powerplay unit in the NHL in the Golden Knights, who score a goal on 32.26% of the time they have a man advantage.

The second glaring discrepency in this game is shooting percentage. This is a game between one of the best shooting teams and one of the worst. The Golden Knights lead the league in overall shooting percentage, scoring on 15.13% of shots on net. Meanwhile, the Oilers rank second last in that stat, scoring on just 7.14% of shots on goal, 7.99% worse than Edmonton.

I'll jump all over the Golden Knights at plus-money.

Pick: Golden Knights +100

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!