Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Blue Jackets Continue to Have Value as Underdogs)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 18, 2024

Nov 15, 2024; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets center Cole Sillinger (4) celebrates his goal against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the third period at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russell LaBounty-Imagn Images / Russell LaBounty-Imagn Images

The NHL season marches on and a new week of games signals a new chance for us to try to win some money.

We went 1-1 on Sunday night but with the win being the Capitals at +115 odds, we walked away with a small profit, and in sports betting, if you're not losing you're winning. Let's see if we can take another step in the right direction on Monday night. It's time to dive into my top three picks.

• Season-to-date record: 41-33-3 (+5.25 units)

Best NHL Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Avalanche -1.5 (+128) vs. Flyers
• Blue Jackets +168 vs. Bruins
• Red Wings vs. Sharks UNDER 6.5 (-128)

Avalanche vs. Flyers Prediction

I typically try to stay away from betting on puck lines, but the Avalanche are that much better than the Flyers that I'm willing to go that direction in this interconference matchup.

The Philadelphia Flyers continue to be a disaster, ranking 27th in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage and to make matters worse, they're allowing 3.42 goals per 60 minutes, the fifth-highest mark in the NHL. Aleksei Kolosov is slated to get the start for them tonight and he's been abysmal in his three starts this season, sporting a goals against average of 3.92 and a save percentage of .863.

The Avalanche are poised to streamroll them tonight.

Pick: Avalanche -1.5 (+128)

Blue Jackets vs. Bruins Prediction

I'm not going to argue the Blue Jackets deserve to be favorites, but I don't think the Bruins have been playing nearly well enough this season to be as big of a favorite as they are. The Bruins enter tonight's game ranking just 18th in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage and 24th in CORSI%. The Blue Jackets rank ninth and 11th in those areas.

Jeremy Swayman has also failed to live up to expectations this season, sporting a save percentage of .888 and he's coming off a game where he allowed seven goals to the Dallas Stars.

This isn't the same Bruins we've come to know in recent history. The Blue Jackets are going to be live 'dogs in Boston.

Pick: Blue Jackets +168

Red Wings vs. Sharks Prediction

We're keeping this bet as simple as possible. The Red Wings and Sharks have been two of the lowest scoring teams in the NHL this season, combining for just 4.8 goals per 60 minutes of play, well below the set total of 6.5 for their game tonight. A big reason for that is the fact they rank 29th and 31st in expected goals for and 28th and 32nd in high-danger scoring chances.

With all of that in mind, I'm surprised there's a 6.5 available for us to bet the UNDER on.

Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-128)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!