Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Fade the Abysmal Canadiens)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 5, 2024

Nov 2, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Montreal Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis (rear) reacts on the bench against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the third period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The NHL hot streak continues. We hit both bets on Monday night with neither game being a sweat. This hot streak won't last forever, so let's try to ride it as long as we can.

We have a loaded NHL slate on Tuesday night which means we have plenty of options to choose from. One bet that immediately jumped off the page to me was fading the Montreal Canadiens, who I think have been the worst team in the NHL in the first month of the season.

Let's dive into my three bets for tonight's hockey action.

• Season-to-date record: 27-14-2 (+11.33 units)

Best NHL Bets Today

• Flames -126 vs. Canadiens via FanDuel
• Kings vs. Wild UNDER 6 (-110) via BetMGM
• Blue Jackets -130 vs. Sharks via Caesars

Flames vs. Canadiens Prediction

The Montreal Canadiens have played some terrible hockey this season. They rank dead last in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goal differential per 60 minutes at -1.1. A big part of that has been their abysmal play in their own end, giving up 3.65 expected goals and 15.07 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.

The Flames have had some issues of their own this season, but they are good enough to have much shorter odds against a team as bad as Montreal.

Pick: Flames -126

Kings vs. Wild Prediction

The Los Angeles Kings and Minnesota Wild have been the two best defensive teams in the NHL, ranking first and second in both 5-on-5 expected goals against and high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of play.

If you're going to give me a total of 6.0 in a game between the two most impressive defensive teams in the league, I won't hesitate to bet the UNDER.

Total: UNDER 6 (-110)

Blue Jackets vs. Sharks Prediction

We're keeping this bet as simple as possible. Yes, the Blue Jackets rank higher than the Sharks in advanced metrics like CORSI% and expected goals percentage, but the most intriguing part of this matchup has been each team's shooting percentage. At the end of the day, hockey is about putting the puck in the net and the Blue Jackets have been the far superior team in doing exactly that.

Columbus ranks third in the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage at 12.76% while the Sharks have a 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 6.34%, which ranks 28th. That's a difference of 6.42% in favor of the Blue Jackets.

They're worth a bet on the road at -130.

Pick: Blue Jackets -130

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!