Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Penguins are Strong Underdog Bet at Home vs. Rangers)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 9, 2024

Apr 1, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Rangers center Barclay Goodrow (21) and Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) battle after a face-off during the second period at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-Imagn Images / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

We started off the NHL season on the right foot, pulling off a 3-0 sweep with my opening night picks.

We needed some luck to pull it off, including Pavel Buchnevich missing a wide open net on a wrap around with one second left to cash the UNDER in the Blues vs. Kraken.

What a way to start the NHL season.

Blues vs. Kraken UNDER 5.5 (+110) ✅pic.twitter.com/MKQbCp7Xgj

— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) October 8, 2024

Let's see if we can carry that momentum into Wednesday night's slate which includes a showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens. I once again have three bets locked in. It's time to dive into it.

NHL Best Bets Today

• Canadiens +164 vs. Maple Leafs via DraftKings
• Penguins +120 vs. Rangers via BetMGM
• Jets vs. Oilers UNDER 6.5 (-120) via Caesars

Canadiens +164 vs. Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs already got bad news before the puck dropped on their season. Their starting goaltender, Joseph Woll, is out tonight with a lower body ailment. Anthony Stolarz will get the start in his place.

Stolarz starts. Woll has a lower body ailment.

— luke fox (@lukefoxjukebox) October 9, 2024

Toronto is continuously one of the most overvalued team in the betting market. This is still a team that has some issues especially on the blue line. They're rightfully favored in this game against their rival, but the Canadiens hold some betting value as home underdogs tonight.

Penguins +120 vs. Rangers

The Penguins' underlying metrics were great last season, but they struggled on special teams and their shooting percentage was one of the worst in the NHL. Those are two areas I believe an offseason can fix and I expect them to surprise some people in the 2024-25 campaign.

Pittsburgh had a better CORSI% than the Ragers last season, 51.53% compared to 51.3% and they also had a better expected goal differential.

Getting plus-money on a team on their home ice who, by most metrics, was the better unit last season is a bet I can get behind.

Jets vs. Oilers UNDER 6.5 (-120)

I'm surprised there's a total of 6.5 available for this game considering the Jets allowed the second fewest goals per 60 minutes last season at 2.4. The Oilers were also better defensively than people may expect, they ranked fifth in the league in expected goals against.

With a goalie matchup tonight between Connor Hellebuyck and an underrated Stuart Skinner, I expect a low-scoring game between these two Western Conference Canadian teams.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!