Tua Tagovailoa's Passing Yards Total for 2024 NFL Season is Disrespectful

Iain MacMillan | Aug 3, 2024

Jul 28, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws the football during training camp at Baptist Health Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

As we approach the one-month mark until the start of the 2024 NFL regular season, it's time to take a look at the futures market.

There are more than just team futures to bet on, there are also plenty of bets available on single-player performances. When searching through the list of player props for the upcoming campaign, one dropped off the page to me: Tua Tagovailoa's passing yards.

Let's take a look.

Tua Tagovailoa's Passing Yards Total for 2024 NFL Season

• OVER 4000.5 Passing Yards (-112)
• UNDER 4000.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Bet the OVER on Tua Tagovailoa's Passing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa is -115 to throw for OVER 4,000 yards this season @FDSportsbook. Here's why @IainMacBets loves that wager. pic.twitter.com/zGXZDlqljO

— SI Betting (@SI_Betting) July 30, 2024

Tagovailoa finished with the most passing yards in the NFL in the 2023 season, finishing with a total of 4,624 yards. That's 624 more than what oddsmakers have his set total at for the 2024 campaign. Why do they think the Dolphins' quarterback will regress by over 600 yards in one season?

10 different quarterbacks threw for over 4,000 yards last season and if that trend continues this upcoming season, I can say with quite a bit of confidence that Tagovailoa will be inside the top 10 as long as he stays healthy.

The Dolphins, under head coach Mike McDaniel, have one of the most explosive units in the NFL including a wide receiver in Tyreek Hill who was just named the No. 1 player in the NFL. Their offense is rounded out by the likes of Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham Jr., Raheem Mostert, and De'Von Achane.

I don't know the cause for the narrative surrounding Tagovailoa outside of his failure to deliver in the postseason, but his regular-season numbers speak for themselves. He is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in terms of metrics and statistics. If sportsbooks and oddsmakers want to underestimate him again in 2024, I won't hesitate to make some money on their incorrect evaluation of the 2023 passing yards leader.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.