Tulane vs. Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Gasparilla Bowl

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Nov 23, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) looks to throw against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Two teams that finished their respective seasons on different trajectories meet in the 2024 Gasparilla Bowl.

Florida battled injuries and a treacherous schedule to earn bowl eligibility around freshman quarterback DJ Lagway. The Gators will take on Tulane to finish the season, who were a fringe College Football Playoff team up until the last week of the regular season, but two straight losses cost the team an opportunity at the 12-team field as well as the AAC Championship.

The Green Wave are expected not to have freshman quarterback Darian Mensah for this game after he entered the transfer portal, which has led to a ton of early betting interest in the Gators.

With that in mind, let’s break down how to bet on the Gasparilla Bowl.

Tulane vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Tulane: +11.5 (-105)
Florida: -11.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Tulane: +365
Florida: -490

Total: 50.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Tulane vs. Florida How to Watch

Date: Thursday, December 19th
Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Tulane Record: 9-4
Florida Record: 7-5

Tulane vs. Florida Key Players to Watch

Tulane

Makhi Hughes: With Mensah set to miss this game, more pressure will fall on Hughes, the talented running back of the Green Wave’s offense. The sophomore hasn’t announced his intent to transfer as of this writing, and with head coach Jon Summral expressing his intent to stay with the program, the hope is Hughes will stay in New Orleans. Hughes averaged north of five yards per carry with 17 total touchdowns but didn’t break 100 yards on the ground in the final three games of the season after doing so in six of the prior seven.

Sources: Tulane coach Jon Sumrall has informed Tulane officials that he’s not pursuing any of the open jobs in this cycle. Sumrall’s name had been one of interest for all of the open Power 4 jobs. pic.twitter.com/q8LZlD60os
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) December 9, 2024

Florida

DJ Lagway: The freshman quarterback shined for the Gators this season when on the field, flashing a lively arm that helped the team reach the top 40 in the country in terms of yards per play and pull upset wins at home against LSU and Ole Miss. Can Lagway continue to usher in the new era of UF football with a bowl win?

Tulane vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

With an opt-out like Mensah, it throws the entire game handicap out of sorts and the betting market is wise to that, installing the Gators as double-digit favorites.

There are capable quarterbacks behind Mesnah, including former Oregon recruit Ty Thompson, but the expectation is that the Tulane offense will take a significant step back after posting a top 25 EPA/Play metric this season.

Further, the team will be playing an SEC-level defense that trended up towards the end of the season, limiting the likes of LSU and Ole Miss below their season averages.

Meanwhile, the Tulane defense has consistently struggled to limit explosive plays on the ground all season, evident against Army and Memphis, ranking outside the top 100 in explosive rush rate and ranking below the national average in tackling, per Pro Football Focus.

Against a team with a significant talent edge at skill positions and a quarterback that can push the ball downfield, the Green Wave can continue its downward trajectory and also be forced into a pass-happy script with its backup quarterback in.

Even at double digits, I can only look one way in this game and that’s with the Gators.

PICK: Florida -11.5