Twins vs. Mets Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Wednesday, July 31 (Can Mets Sweep?)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Minnesota Twins-New York Mets matchup on Wednesday.

New York Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino. / Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Should New York Mets fans get the brooms out on Wednesday afternoon?

New York has outscored the Minnesota Twins 17-2 over the first two games of this series, winning both matchups, and now it is set in a near pick’em at home in Game 3. 

The Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and they’ll send righty Luis Severino to the mound in the series finale. 

Meanwhile, the Twins are losing some ground in the AL wild card race, something they can’t really afford with the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros both within four games of them entering Wednesday’s action. 

Here’s a look at the odds, probable pitchers and my best bet for the third and final game at Citi Field. 

Twins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Twins -1.5 (+150)
• Mets +1.5 (-180)

Moneyline

• Twins: -115
• Mets: -105

Total

• 8.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Twins vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• Minnesota: Pablo Lopez (9-7, 4.73 ERA)
• New York: Luis Severino (7-3, 3.58 ERA)

Twins vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 31
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, Bally Sports North
• Twins record: 58-48
• Mets record: 57-50

Twins vs. Mets Key Players to Watch

Minnesota Twins

Pablo Lopez: An All-Star last season, Lopez has lowered his ERA from 5.45 to 4.73 since the start of June, but he hasn’t been nearly as effective in 2024. That being said, he’s allowed just five total runs over his last 19.0 innings, striking out at least five games in each of his July outings. I don’t mind taking him in a potential strikeout prop tonight. 

New York Mets

Luis Severino: Severino is aiming to close out the month of July strong, as the Mets have won his last three starts and he’s lowered his EAR to 3.58 on the season. One thing to watch in the prop market for Severino is his walks prop, as he’s allowed at least two free passes in each of his four outings in July. 

Twins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Are the Mets undervalued on Wednesday night?

Severino has pitched extremely well since the start of June, leading the Mets to a 7-2 record in nine starts and allowing two or fewer runs in six of those nine games. 

Now, Lopez’s advanced numbers look better than his actual ones, as he has posted a 3.45 expected ERA this season, but he still has a few blowup outings – allowing five runs or more in three outings since the start of June. 

The Mets are rolling right now, playing some of the best baseball in the league since June 1. 

They’ve also thrived as home underdogs, going 12-7 on the run line and 10-9 straight up in the 2024 season. 

I’ll bet on the Mets to break out the brooms this afternoon. 

Pick: Mets Moneyline (-105)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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