U.S. Open Cut Line History and Prediction (Who Will Make the Cut at Pinehurst?)

Iain MacMillan | Jun 11, 2024

Justin Thomas holds the 18th hole flagstick during a practice round for the 2024 U.S. Open. / Katie Goodale-USA TODAY Sports

If you're sick of seeing winners of events of PGA Tour finishing at 20 under par, then the U.S. Open is the event for you. The USGA has long been known to set up some of the most difficult courses that golfers will face all year.

Sometimes, shooting even par is good enough to win the U.S. Open. Often, being several strokes over par after the first two rounds is still good enough to make the cut.

Let's dive into everything you need to know about the cut line at the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst.

How many golfers make the cut at the 2024 U.S. Open?

Golfers who are in the top 60 on the leaderboard, including ties, will make the cut after the second round and advance to the weekend.

There are 156 golfers in the field which means depending on how many golfers are tied around 60th, more than half the field will be cut after the second round.

U.S. Open cut line history

Cut line at last five events

Year	Course	Cut Line
2023	Los Angeles Country Club	+2
2022	The Country Club	+3
2021	Torrey Pines	+4
2020	Winged Foot	+6
2019	Pebble Beach	+2

U.S. Open cut line at Pinehurst

Year	Course	Cut Line
2014	Pinehurst No. 2	+5
2005	Pinehurst No. 2	+8
1999	Pinehurst No. 2	+7

2024 U.S. Open cut line prediction

We've seen some high cut lines at Pinehurst the three times the event was posted here. I believe it's going to generally play slightly easier than it has the past three times. The USGA has scaled back the difficulty of its U.S. Open setups the past five years, with the cut line sitting a few strokes under par. I'm going to predict a similar cut line this time around.

Cut line prediction: +4

2024 U.S. Open best bet to make the cut

Tom Hoge is a golfer that you're not going to think of when it comes to contending to win an event, but he's exactly the type of guy we should take a look at to make the cut. He hasn't missed the cut in an individual stroke play event since the first event of 2024, the Sony Open. That adds up to 15-straight cuts for the 35-year old.

His short game sometimes abandons him, but he's one of the most consistent ball strikers on the PGA Tour. In fact, he ranks third on Tour in strokes-gained approach behind only Scottie Scheffler and Corey Conners.

Expect to see him this weekend at Pinehurst.

Pick: Tom Hoge to make the cut -172

2024 U.S. Open best bet to miss the cut

Update: Jon Rahm has since withdrawn from the U.S. Open

Jon Rahm is going to be the most bet on golfer to miss the cut this week and I'm going to jump on that trend. There are plenty of red flags surrounding him this week, mainly the fact he's dealing with a cut on his foot that caused him to withdraw from last week's LIV Houston event.

On top of the injury, Rahm has been unimpressive in the first two majors of the season. He finished T45 at the Masters and then missed the cut at the PGA Championship in May.

At +200 odds, I can't resist betting him to miss the cut once again.

Pick: Jon Rahm to miss the cut +200

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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