UC-San Diego vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 19, 2025

A March Madness basketball sits on the court during a timeout Friday, March 29, 2024, during the midwest regional semifinals at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. The Purdue Boilermakers defeated the Gonzaga Bulldogs, 80-68. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Big Ten Champions Michigan enter the NCAA Tournament as the No. 5 seed in the South Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament and are set to face a mid-major juggernaut in No. 12 seed UC-San Diego. 

The Tritons have out-classed its entire schedule en route to its first ever NCAA Tournament appearance, and the betting market can’t catch up to them. UC-San Diego is the best team against the spread in the entire country and is only a one possession underdog against the Wolverines. 

Who has the edge out west? Can UC-San Diego’s dream season continue? 

Here’s our betting preview.

UC-San Diego vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• UC-San Diego: +2.5 (-110)
• Michigan: -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• UC-San Diego: +118
• Michigan: -142

Total: 142.5 (Over -104/Under -118)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

UC-San Diego vs. Michigan How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 20
• Game Time: 10:00 PM EST
• Venue: Ball Arena
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• UC-San Diego Record: 30-4
• Michigan Record: 25-9

UC-San Diego vs. Michigan Key Players to Watch

UC-San Diego

Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones: The UCSD power forward has been elite all season, a downhill force that is utilized as a point-forward of sorts for the Tritons potent offense. At 6’6”, the senior can do it all, averaging nearly 20 points per game with five rebounds and nearly four assists while shooting 57% from the field. 

Michigan

Danny Wolf: The Wolverines use a point forward of sorts as well with Yale transfer Wolf operating as the primary ball handler for the team’s unique offense that features two seven footers, including FAU transfer Vladislav Goldin. On the year, Wolf is averaging 13 points per game with nearly 10 rebounds and almost four assists. 

UC-San Diego vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

The Wolverines can give the Tritons some trouble with its double big lineup of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, but this is a nightmare matchup for the Wolverines on the heels of a Big Ten Tournament title win and now traveling out west to altitude to face a west coast threat. 

The Tritons have been one of the best stories in college basketball, making the NCAA Tournament in its fourth season at the level, but the team is incredibly good as well.

The team is owners of the longest winning streak in the country with 15 straight victories and are paced by an elite ball pressure unit that is second in the nation in turnover percentage. 

This is incredibly impactful as the Wolverines are 328th in turnover percentage and uber reliant on their ability to get to the rim to offset some of its woes protecting the ball. 

I expect UC-San Diego to play zone and force Michigan to operate in the half court, while the Tritons apply ample ball pressure and attack the team’s drop coverage with shots from the perimeter – the team is eighth in 3-point rate while shooting over 36% from beyond the arc. 

It’s a sharp market with the Tritons catching only a few points, but this matchup sets up well for the team to go toe-to-toe with the Wolverines and pull the mild upset. 

PICK: UC-San Diego +3.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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