UCF vs. Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Reed Wallach | Oct 1, 2024

Aug 31, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Graham Mertz (15) runs with the ball against the Miami Hurricanes during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

UCF squandered an opportunity to seize control of the Big 12 last week against Colorado, and now plays one of the few non-conference battles on Saturday against Florida. 

The Gators are up against it, spiraling towards the eventual ousting of head coach Billy Napier, can the team’s defense slow down the Knights potent offense?

Here’s how to bet on this battle for the Sunshine State on Saturday.

UCF vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• UCF: -2.5 (-110)
• Florida: +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• UCF: -137
• Florida: +114

Total: 61.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

UCF vs. Florida How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, October 5
• Game Time: 7:45 PM EST
• Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• UCF Record: 3-1
• Florida Record: 2-2

UCF vs. Florida Key Players to Watch

UCF

RJ Harvey: Harvey had his most mild outing of the season against Colorado, rushing for only 77 yards on only 16 carries, his first game under 100 yards on the season. The Knights offense has been shaky through the air with KJ Jefferson and the team is reliant on Harvey’s ability to rip off explosive plays on the ground. He is still averaging seven yards per carry this season. 

Florida

Graham Mertz: Mertz is likely to come out of the BYE week starting for the Gators, but the team may continue to rotate in DJ Lagway, the promising freshman. Florida’s offense has been explosive despite it’s middling record, averaging more than seven yards per game, which can set up for a big night against a UCF defense that has allowed 30 or more points to the two capable offenses it has faced this season. 

UCF vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

There’s plenty of avenues to points for both teams. 

The Knights defense has shown that it can’t slow down capable passing games, 124th in EPA/Play on defense, while the Gators defense is outside the top 100 in metrics like points allowed per drive (123rd) and EPA/Play (109th). 

Both defenses are out of sorts, which should set up nicely for a pair of explosive offenses, each top 40 in the country in EPA/Play. 

The Knights thrive on its three-headed monster in the running game with Harvey, quarterback K.J. Jefferson and fellow running back Peny Boone, sixth in the country in yards per carry. 

Meanwhile, Mertz and the Gators offense, and possibly Lagway for a few drives, should be able to put together scoring drives against the Knights, who only have three sacks on the season. With a BYE to prepare, I expect a strong passing game from Florida at home. 

PICK: OVER 61.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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