UCF vs. TCU Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 3

Reed Wallach | Sep 10, 2024

Sep 7, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws a pass during warmups before the game against the Long Island Sharks at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

UCF and TCU will meet to start Big 12 play for each team in hopes of jumpstarting a run to the top of the new-look conference. 

Both teams have lofty goals and explosive offenses, but who has the edge in Fort Worth? UCF will look to its potent run game with transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson under center leading the way against TCU’s similarly dynamic offense with Josh Hoover at quarterback. 

There’s going to be points in this one, but can UCF go on the road and grab a signature win? 

Here’s how we are betting it. 

UCF vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• UCF: -1.5 (-106)
• TCU: +1.5 (-114)

Moneyline

• UCF: -110
• TCU: -110

Total: 62.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

UCF vs. TCU How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, September 14th
• Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
• Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX 
• UCF Record: 2-0
• TCU Record: 2-0

UCF vs. TCU Key Players to Watch

UCF

KJ Jefferson: Jefferson is a dual-threat quarterback that head coach Gus Malzahn said is the closest thing he has coached since he coached Cam Newton at Auburn. The Knights have an elite ground game with RJ Harvey and Peny Boone flanking Jefferson in the backfield and the ability to stretch the field with the deep ball. This is an elite offense. 

TCU

Josh Hover: Last season, Hoover took over for Chandler Morris and didn’t look back. In 2024, it appears that he is going to new heights, engineering an impressive offensive effort against Stanford and then a dominant outing against Long Island. Hoover’s passed for 620 yards and four touchdowns to start the new season. 

UCF vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

This game is an interesting one, lined as a coin flip, and I agree. 

To me, the key will be with TCU’s defensive line. Can the Horned Frogs stop the UCF run game that is averaging more than eight yards per carry this season through two games? If TCU can put UCF behind the sticks and force this team to pass more than 30 times per game, the Horned Frogs will likely generate far more efficiency on offense and pull away. 

To be clear, TCU’s lone look at a dual-threat quarterback didn’t have much positivity. The team allowed Ashton Daniels of Stanford to rush for more than 80 yards with some deep passes as well. Can Andy Avalos’ defense shore it up now at home with another week of this new-look defense coming together? 

I’m avoiding the side in this one as I’m curious to see if UCF can go on the road and possibly pass from behind for the first time with Jefferson at quarterback. 

While UCF has a talented defense, I’m confident TCU’s offense can generate explosive plays and get over its team total. This Knights defense was 112th in yards per carry allowed and 110th in defensive line yards. While the team may have improved on that side of the ball, I need to see it on the road in its first conference game. 

I’ll back the Horned Frogs team total OVER on Saturday night. 

PICK: TCU Team Total OVER 31.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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