UCLA vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, December 21

Reed Wallach | 4 Hours Ago

Dec 17, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; UCLA Bruins forward William Kyle III (24) dunks the ball against Prairie View A&M Panthers in the second half at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

North Carolina’s season is quickly approaching a boiling point after a 6-5 start to the season and the team devoid of many signature wins ahead of ACC play. 

While the team’s underlying metrics show a solid roster, the Tar Heels need some wins on the ledger to avoid NCAA Tournament concerns. The team gets another opportunity to beat a highly thought of foe in 10-1 UCLA on Saturday at Madison Square Garden. 

The Bruins are paced by its elite defense that will look to shut down the likes of RJ Davis, can the team continue to put together a strong non conference resume ahead of Big 10 play? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

UCLA vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• UCLA: -1.5 (-110)
• North Carolina: +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• UCLA: -130
• North Carolina: +108

Total: 152.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

UCLA vs. North Carolina How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 21
• Game Time: 3:00 PM EST
• Venue: Madison Square Garden
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• UCLA Record: 10-1
• North Carolina Record: 6-5

UCLA vs. North Carolina Key Players to Watch

UCLA

Tyler Bilodeau: The Oregon State transfer has thrived this season with Mick Cronin’s group. He is averaging 14 points per game with five rebounds while adding nearly a block with a steal to boot in the frontcourt of the elite Bruins defense. He has showcased a deft touch both inside and out, shooting nearly 50% from the field and 35% from beyond the arc. 

North Carolina

RJ Davis: Davis’ efficiency has fallen off this season, his fifth with the Tar Heels. He is averaging about three points fewer per game while shooting 37% from the field and a career worst 25% from beyond the arc. Without a ton of help around him with a developing group of role players, Davis has struggled to keep up his normally torrid scoring rate that we have become accustomed to. 

UCLA vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

While UCLA is elite on the defensive side of the ball -- top five in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom -- this matchup may not suit the Bruins all that well. 

UCLA is bottom 100 in the country in terms of points allowed per possession in transition, which is notable against an elite North Carolina transition unit. Davis and co. love to push the pace and hunt shots in the open court with nearly 23% possessions coming in transition. 

The Bruins defensive profile is bolstered by the team’s ability to turn its opponents over, 27% is No. 1 in the country, but the Tar Heels are strong with the ball, ranking top 25 in the nation in turnover rate. 

Meanwhile, UNC’s inability to pressure the rock, or shut down the perimeter has held the team back. The group is 279th in turnover rate and is undersized in the backcourt, which can open up options along the perimeter with the Bruins offense that is shooting 34% from deep (124th in the country). 

UCLA would prefer to play slow, but with the Tar Heels preference to push the tempo, I believe we see a higher possession affair and for this game to quickly become a shootout, as many North Carolina games have been this season. 

With that in mind, I’ll go for the over despite the high mark with an elite defense. 

PICK: OVER 152.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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