UFC 309 Odds and Best Bets for Jones vs. Miocic, Oliveira vs. Chandler and More

The greatest MMA fighter of all time will look to cement his legacy against the UFC Heavyweight GOAT in what the oddsmakers are making out to be a lock for Jon Jones.

Feb 15, 2020; Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA; UFC fighter Jon Jones attends the light heavyweight bout between Jan Blachowicz (blue) and Corey Anderson (red) during UFC Fight Night at Santa Ana Star Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

Jon Jones (-625) vs. Stipe Miocic (+455)

I share Dana White’s sentiment that Jon Jones is the greatest mixed martial artist of all time. After becoming the youngest champion in the promotion’s history at 23, Jones has run through every opponent he has faced (with the exception of the Reyes robbery and the DQ loss to Matt Hamill for using now legal 12-6 elbows).

The reality is that Jones and White are holding the heavyweight title hostage here by making this fight instead of  a unification bout between Jones and the interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall. The discourse this week has been tiring, to be frank, and I think I share the sentiment of all UFC fans in that I can’t wait for it all to be over and the division can move on.

I understand  making this legacy fight against Stipe but to call it a fight for the “undisputed’ title is not being honest with Jones' apparent ducking of Aspinall.

Stipe is the greatest heavyweight this promotion has ever seen, despite not fighting in almost 4 years after getting brutally knocked out by Francis Ngannou. I will approach wagering on this fight cautiously because I think regardless of recent history, everyone has just flat out written off Stipe. If I had to pick a side here I would obviously side with Jones, but I don’t think it is going to be the cakewalk it has been made out to be. I could very well see Stipe weathering the storm with his Octagon experience and taking this one to the scorecards. At some very enticing odds of +165 for this fight going over 2.5 rounds, this will most likely be the only bet I make on this historic bout.

Bet: OVER 2.5 rounds (+165)

Charles Oliveira (-238) vs. Michael Chandler (+195)

Without a doubt this scrap should be the favorite to be Fight of the Night, and if I could find a market for it, I would definitely be tempted to take a look. The last time these two fought at UFC 262, it was nothing but a firefight from the opening horn, and Chandler was moments away from capturing the lightweight title.

Unfortunately for Chandler, he joins a long list of opponents who “almost” finished ‘Do Bronx’ before he does what he does and pulls the fight from out of the fire.

Chandler had Oliveira in big trouble at the end of the first round, almost finishing him with ground and pound. But Oliveira survived and came out swinging to start the second round landing a vicious left hook that almost dropped Chandler and kept the onslaught coming getting the stoppage just 20 seconds into the second round and winning the lightweight title, subsequently defending it 2 times before he lost it to current champion Islam Makhechev.

With that being said, it has been three and a half years since that fight, and that is a lifetime in MMA. Chandler foolishly (in my opinion) sat on the sidelines for the last 2 plus years waiting for the Conor McGregor fight. I have always wondered how Chandler can say “all that matters to me is winning the title”, while all the while waiting on the sidelines for what has proven to be an unreliable McGregor. With that saga behind us at least for the foreseeable future, this fight will actually get Chandler one fight away from the title as Dana White has made it clear that this a title eliminator and the winner will get the next shot whether it be Makhachev or Arman Tsarukyan. 

Chandler has looked to be extremely focused and in incredible shape this week and I just have a feeling that this could be his time and the odds provide great value on Chandler who was moments away from a finish last time. It is somewhat laughable that the UFC decided to make this a five round co-main as the chances of this fight going to the scorecards after 25 minutes is slim to none. I'll be hedging my wager a little here and betting Chandler on the point spread

Bet: Michael Chandler +5.5 (+165)

Bo Nickal (-1350) vs. Paul Craig (+800)

Paul Craig is basically being fed to the wolves here for Bo Nickal, as the UFC has put a lot of money and effort into promoting the former three-time national champion wrestler from Penn State. Craig is just a journeyman at this point in his career, but is a likable guy and is an excellent grappler. Excellent unfortunately doesn’t always translate to great.

Bo Nickal is a GREAT grappler and should be able to run through Craig, who is on the back 9 of his UFC career. This is great matchmaking on the part of the UFC as it protects their golden child in Nickal without giving the optics of feeding him a total tomato can,

It is my firm belief that no matter the matchup in the UFC, no one should ever be a -1350 in a professional cage fight. There is too much variance and too many variables that can happen in such a violent and fast moving sport. So I will be fading this result completely.

For the purpose of this article though, I will give you a prop that I think provides some value. As Bo continues his journey in MMA, he will have to continue to work on his striking and this may be the perfect time to let his hands fly. Paul Craig has been slept 5 times in his UFC career and is a horrible striker. At plus money I do like a sprinkle on Bo Nickal to land 25+ significant strikes.

Bet: Bo Nickal to land 25+ significant strikes (+105)

Viviane Araujo (+240) vs. Karine Silva (-298)

While Silva should definitely be the favorite in this fight, it seems a tad bit disrespectful to Araujo to be listed as such a big underdog here. Araujo is a veteran in the UFC and has become a dependable fighter for the most part while never being able to break into the top of the rankings. She is a very gifted athlete but the reality here is that her fight IQ is below average and when she is on the brink of bringing her opponent to deep waters, she can’t seem to grasp the concept of keeping it simple and finishing the job a lot of times. 

Silva, on the other hand, has a lot of boxes checked when looking for an advantage: younger, better athlete and has the advantage on the ground. Because of this funky line and not a strong lean I am not going to pick a side here, but there is an interesting fight parlay on Draft Kings that I am taking a look at.

Araujo’s clearest path to victory here is shooting for submissions, but I also think the most realistic outcome is for this fight to go the scorecards. You can hedge (in a sense) Silva via DEC with Araujo via SUB for a pretty decent price. 

Bet: Fight Parlay — Viviane Araujo to Win By Submission or Karine Silva to Win by Decision (-125)

Maurico Ruffy (-900) vs. James Llontop (+600)

The Fighting Nerds  have taken over the UFC and team member Mauricio “One Shot” Ruffy is on the opening card of the PPV in just his second appearance in the promotion after getting his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. He is 10-1 in his MMA career with all 10 wins coming via KO. James Llontop is completely overmatched here, although Ruffy being a -900 favorite is a little crazy. Based on my knowledge of these fighters I would have set the line at Ruffy -650ish. 

Both of these fighters excel when they are pushing the pace, but Llontop is a below average grappler and if Ruffy is able to apply pressure early he has multiple paths to victory, whether they stand and trade blows or take it to the ground.

Bet: Ruffy to win in Rounds 1-2 (-110)