Underdogs Continue Unbelievably Hot Start to 2024 NFL Season

Iain MacMillan | Sep 23, 2024

Sep 22, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds (11) runs with the ball as Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Zyon McCollum (27) defends during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

It has been a wild start to the 2024 NFL season.

You're not just imagining it. The first three weeks have yielded some wild results that no one saw coming. It seems like on a weekly basis the biggest favorites find a way to lose. It's not just underdogs that have been winning, but the biggest underdogs on the board are continuously pulling off upsets.

NFL underdogs of 5.5+ points are now 13-2 ATS this season with NINE outright wins (4-0 today)

Crazy

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 22, 2024

According to Ben Fawkes, underdogs of 5.5-points or more are 9-6 outright and 13-2 against the spread this season, an unprecedented start to the season. You know this well if you have been playing in any survivor pools. The top picked team all three weeks has lost:

• Week 1: Bengals (-7.5) vs. Patriots LOSS
• Week 2: Ravens (-8.5) vs. Raiders LOSS
• Week 3: Buccaneers (-5.5) vs. Broncos LOSS

The only two favorites of 5.5 points or more to both win the game and cover the spread has been the following:

• Week 1: Lions (-5.5) vs. Rams WIN AND COVER
• Week 2: Jets (-6.5) vs. Patriots WIN AND COVER

There are two more games to add the list tonight, one way or the other. The Bills are listed as 5.5-point favorites to the Jaguars and the Bengals are 7.5-point favorites to the Commanders in the Monday Night Football doubleheader.

Will the trend of underdogs upsetting their opponents continue, or will we see a regression to the mean and a run of good teams taking care of business against inferior opponents? We'll find that out as the season continues.

Here is a look at the top three favorites in Week 4 of the NFL season:

• 49ers (-10.5) vs. Patriots
• Chiefs (-7) at Chargers
• Jets (-7) vs. Broncos

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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