UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Mountain West Championship Game

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Nov 23, 2024; Laramie, Wyoming, USA; Boise State Broncos running back and Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty (2) runs for a touchdown against the Wyoming Cowboys during the first quarter at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images / Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images

In what may be a win-and-in scenario for the College Football Playoff, UNLV travels to Boise State for the Mountain West Championship Game. 

There will be plenty of intrigue from a rematch of the team’s Week 9 showdown in Las Vegas that features UNLV traveling to the ‘Smurf Turf’ to face the highly ranked Broncos, who are paced by Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty. The Rebels have been formidable all season despite some quarterback turnover early on, can the team avenge a mid-season loss and potentially go to the College Football Playoff? 

Here’s our full betting preview for the Mountain West Championship Game. 

UNLV vs. Boise State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• UNLV: +3.5 (-108)
• Boise State: -3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• UNLV: +138
• Boise State: -166

Total: 58.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

UNLV vs. Boise State How to Watch

• Date: Friday, December 6
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Albertsons Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• UNLV Record: 10-2
• Boise State Record: 11-1

UNLV vs. Boise State Key Players to Watch

UNLV

Hajj-Malik Williams: Williams continues to be a dual-threat monster for the Rebels 'Go-Go offense, fresh off 168 yards passing and 104 yards on the ground with three total touchdowns. Williams has been fantastic all season, including a strong showing against Boise in which he ran for over 100 yards to go with 179 yards passing. However, he took six sacks in the loss. Can he get the Rebels over the hump in a rematch? 

Boise State

Ashton Jeanty: The Heisman Trophy contender cleared 200 yards yet again against Oregon State in the regular season finale, but will have a far tougher test in the Mountain West title game against UNLV. The Rebels did a good job against Jeanty in the first matchup, relative to expectations, limiting him to 128 yards on 33 carries, his lowest yards per carry out of the season. Can Jeanty break loose in this one to send Boise State to the College Football Playoff? 

UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

While Boise State has been trending downwards over the last few weeks, covering once in the last four games, but I believe this is way too much of a downgrade for the Broncos ahead of this matchup. 

In a close game in Las Vegas, Boise State narrowly covered as four-and-a-half point road favorites in Week 9. Since then, we have seen the Broncos taper off a bit while UNLV’s pass defense has continued to be a bit suspect, yet the point spread has swung considerably with Boise State only laying three-and-a-half at home.

The Broncos defensive line was the most impressive part of the team’s win against UNLV, sacking Hajj-Malik Williams six times in the team’s win. Boise State’s defense has been reliant on its pass rush all season, second in the nation in sacks but also outside the top 90 in both explosive rush and pass rate. 

If Boise State can put UNLV behind the sticks often, the team will put a ton of pressure on the team’s passing game. While Williams has been able to showcase some arm talent, the team would far prefer to keep this on the ground and use its 11-man run game to stay ahead of schedule. 

Meanwhile, I think Boise State’s path to victory lies in its ability to pass the ball. The Rebels did a good job keeping Ashton Jeanty contained in the first meeting, but Maddux Madsen showed up big time in the road victory, passing for 209 yards and running for 58 and two touchdowns. 

If Madsen is able to move the ball through the air against a shaky UNLV pass defense that is more vulnerable than the team’s rush defense, that can open up rushing lanes for Jeanty later on. 

This point spread is over-adjusted in my opinion and I’ll lay it with the home favorite. 

PICK: Boise State -3.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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