USA Heavily Favored to Earn Most Medals and Most Gold Medals in 2024 Paris Olympics

Iain MacMillan | Jul 24, 2024

Jul 23, 2024, Saint-Denis, France; The Olympic rings at the 2024 Paris Olympics athlete village. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 Olympic Games in France have officially begun! Here at SI Betting, we're going to be breaking down the odds for a plethora of events, but what about total medal count?

As you probably expect, the United States are heavy favorites to finish with the most gold medals, which they have been in six of the last seven editions of the Summer Games.

Let's dive into the full list of odds.

Odds to Finish with Most Olympic Gold Medals

• United States -550
• China +350
• Great Britain +4200
• Japan +5500
• France +8000
• Germany +12000
• Australia +16000
• Netherlands +16000
• Canada +16000
• South Korea +23000
• Hungary +50000
• Italy +50000
• Brazil +50000
• Cuba +50000

Odds to Finish with Most Olympic Medals

• United States -2000
• China +1300
• Great Britain +6000
• Japan +6000
• Australia +12000
• France +16000
• Germany +16000
• Italy +19000
• Netherlands +32000
• Canada +42000
• Cuba +50000
• New Zealand +50000
• Hungary +50000
• South Kora +50000
• Brazil +50000

The USA is a -550 favorite to finish with the most gold medals, an implied probability of 84.62%. The Americans are also favored to win the most total medals at -2000, an implied probability of 95.24%.

China Will be USA's Biggest Challenge

Over the past seven editions of the Summer Games, the United States only failed to finish with the most gold medals once and that was in 2008. That year it was China who finished with the most gold medals with 48. The United States finished second with 36 and Russia finished third with 24.

In the three most recent editions of the Summer Games, the United States finished with the most gold medals. China finished second in both 2012 and 2020 and Great Britain finished second in 2016. At the 2020 games, which took place in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic taking place in 2020, the United States barely edged out China in gold medals with a final count of 39-38.

When it comes to total medals won, you have to go back to 1992 for the last time the United States didn't finish on top. That year, the "Unified Team" which was made up of 12 of the 15 former Soviet republics, finished with 112 total medals compared to the USA's 108.

I have no doubt the Americans will finish with the most total medals this year, but don't be surprised if China is able to finish with the most golds. At +350 odds, it could be worth a bet after falling just one gold medal short at the last Summer Games.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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