USC vs. Michigan Final Score Prediction for College Football Week 4

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Sep 1, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Miller Moss (7) throws the ball in the second half against the LSU Tigers at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

USC’s Big Ten debut comes on the road against the defending National Champions Michigan Wolverines, who are making a quarterback change to the run-first Alex Orji.

With Orji under center, can the Wolverines find their footing on offense and adapt a run-first mindset against the explosive USC offense? The Trojans come to Michigan with new quarterback Miller Moss announcing himself as a Heisman Trophy contender at the helm of Lincoln Riley’s offense, but will face his first true road environment and an elite defense, how will he do?

Here are the updated odds, our betting thoughts, and final score prediction for Saturday’s Big Ten opener.

USC vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

USC: -5.5 (-106)
Michigan: +5.5 (-114)

Moneyline

USC: -200
Michigan: +164

Total: 44.5 (Over -105/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

USC vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Michigan’s offense was expected to take a step back this season, but the early returns are worse than anyone could’ve imagined. The team will turn to Orji against the Trojans in hopes of using a forceful ground game to notch a ranked victory.

Here’s what we wrote about Orji in our betting preview:

Orji was thought to be the starter heading into the season but was beat out by senior Davis Warren. However, head coach Sherrone Moore named Orji the starter for the Big Ten opener against USC. Orji has only attempted six passes in three games for 15 total yards while rushing 10 times for 58 yards. Orji isn’t a viable passer but may give the team an opportunity to assert its dominance on the ground.

While the Wolverines will look to keep this game on the ground and trust its defense to keep the team close, the Trojans defense is far better than last season.

However, this is a revamped USC defense under defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who has made a big turnaround quickly, shutting down LSU in its opening game on a neutral site (15th percentile of EPA/Rush, per GameonPaper). Without a viable passing game, Michigan will look to play keep away and field position in hopes of staying competitive.

This will be a stiff test for USC’s new-look roster, but it’s tough to count on the Wolverines to find enough answers given its one-dimensional offense. This is a first-to-20 game, and I’ll side with the newest member of the Big Ten.

Final Score Prediction: USC 20, Michigan 13

USC vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

USC vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

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