USC vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 4

Reed Wallach | Sep 16, 2024

Sep 14, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Alex Orji (10) runs the ball against the Arkansas State Red Wolves during the second half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

USC will make its Big Ten debut on Saturday afternoon at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor against the defending National Champions Wolverines. 

Michigan has struggled in its quest for a repeat, failing to find a quarterback to make the offense viable around a still elite defense. Meanwhile, USC’s transition from former Heisman Trophy Caleb Williams to Miller Moss has gone great, beating LSU in a neutral site opening game and blowing out Utah State. 

Can USC keep its fine play up on the road? 

Here’s our betting preview: 

USC vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• USC: -5.5 (-120)
• Michigan +5.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• USC: -255
• Michigan: +225

Total: 45.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

USC vs. Michigan How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, September 20th
• Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
• Venue: Michigan Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• USC Record 2-0
• Michigan Record: 2-1

USC vs. Michigan Key Players to Watch

USC

Miller Moss: Moss passed his first test with flying colors, leading a fourth quarter comeback against LSU, passing for 378 yards in the process. He’ll face an elite Michigan defense on the road, his first true roadie in a hostile environment. Will he be able to answer the call?

Michigan

Alex Orji: Orji was thought to be the starter heading into the season, but was beat out by senior Davis Warren. However, head coach Sherrone Moore named Orji the starter for the Big Ten opener against USC. Orji has only attempted six passes in three games for 15 total yards while rushing 10 times for 58 yards. Orji isn’t a viable passer, but may give the team an opportunity to assert its dominance on the ground. 

USC vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

As noted above, Orji’s insertion into the starting lineup at quarterback means that the Wolverines are going to go with a run-first attack on offense. 

The junior quarterback is not a threat as a passer whatsoever, but is an athletic rusher that can extend plays and turn uphill to move the chains with the dynamic running back group of Donnovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings. 

However, this is a revamped USC defense under defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who has made a big turnaround quickly, shutting down LSU in its opening game on a neutral site (15th percentile of EPA/Rush, per GameonPaper). Without a viable passing game, Michigan will look to play keep away and field position in hopes of staying competitive. 

I don’t believe Michigan can keep it close, and USC can use a similar game script that Texas used, avoiding the run game into the strength of the Michigan defense, while spreading out the secondary with the quick pass game to put the ball in space. 

USC has the likes of Zachariah Branch that can rip off chunk plays at wide receiver with his blazing speed similar to how Texas picked apart Michigan at the Big House. While Moss may take several sacks (he was sacked three times in the LSU game) in his first true road strat, the Trojans have a viable offense and an improved defense while Michigan can’t string together quality plays. 

The under is my favorite bet in this one as I can’t trust Michigan to put up much on the scoreboard.  

PICK: UNDER 45.5 (-105)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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