Utah State vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 19, 2025

Feb 17, 2024; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Utah State Aggies guard Ian Martinez (4) gestures in the first half against the Colorado State Rams at Moby Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Utah State and UCLA meet in first-round NCAA Tournament action with the No. 10 seed Aggies trying to pull a mild upset against the No. 7 seed Bruins in the Midwest Region. 

This is a battle of contrasting styles as UCLA is paced by a stout defense that plays at a prodding pace while Utah State is reliant on its blistering offense that led to a strong first season under head coach Jerrod Calhoun. 

Can Utah State keep up, or will the Bruins elite defense dominate this matchup?

Here’s our betting preview. 

Utah State vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Utah State: +5.5 (-110)
• UCLA: -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Utah State: +200
• UCLA: -220

Total: 145.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Utah State vs. UCLA How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 20th
• Game Time: 9:25 PM EST
• Venue: Rupp Arena
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Utah State Record: 26-7
• UCLA Record: 22-10

Utah State vs. UCLA Key Players to Watch

Utah State

Ian Martinez: The senior guard can do it all for the Aggies, averaging 16 points per game while providing sound shot-making in addition to getting to the rim and free-throw line at a healthy clip. He will be tasked with unpacking the Bruins' compact defense that shuts off the rim for opponents, while also creating sound looks for the rest of the Aggies' talented shooters. 

UCLA

Tyler Bilodeau: If UCLA is going to find answers on offense, it likely comes through Bilodeau. The Aggies run a zone defense that has been tricky to crack at times for opposing defenses, but Bilodeau’s time at Oregon State may provide some experience against zone defenses considering the Beavers also deploy one. The big man is a capable three-point shooter, hitting 40% of his three-point shots, so he may be tasked with stretching the floor in this unique matchup. 

Utah State vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

This game has a ton of variance in it, as each team profiles more similarly than one would think on the surface. 

Both defenses are elite rim denial units despite one team being far better on that side of the floor. UCLA is one of the best interior defenses in the country, and Utah State tries to overwhelm opponents at the rim, but is also plenty dangerous from beyond the arc, shooting nearly 36% as a team. 

Against a UCLA team that will force teams to shoot from distance, it can go sideways for a team that tries to run its own offense through the mid-range and live off of a diet of off-the-dribble jump shots. 

The Aggies are the far more reliable offense, 21st in effective field goal percentage and flush with strong ball handlers, which I believe can offset some of the Bruins' edges on the defensive side of the floor. 

It’ll come down to how Utah State’s zone holds up against UCLA’s analytically un-savvy offense. The Bruins have been up-and-down on offense, but if it is forced out to the perimeter, it can lead to some wasted possessions. 

At price, I’m going to side with the more trustworthy offense and back the Aggies. 

PICK: Utah State +5.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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