Vegas Views: Betting Insider Says Cowboys Provide Value vs. Texans in Ugly ‘MNF’ Game

Gilberto Manzano | Nov 14, 2024

Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush is expected to start and one betting insider likes the Cowboys to cover. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Football fans have nearly the perfect slate of prime-time games in Week 11, but those fast-fading Dallas Cowboys and the broken offense of the Houston Texans had to ruin it by facing each other on Monday Night Football.

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders to start the fireworks during Thursday Night Football. All eyes will be on the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills in the coveted time slot of 4:25 p.m. ET to cap the late afternoon games on Sunday. That’s followed by the intriguing battle between the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals during Sunday Night Football.

As you can tell, Cowboys vs. Texans sticks out more than a clown in between a group of soldiers. (Most of you have seen the meme.)

But Jonathan Von Tobel, an on-air host for VSiN, found value in the not-so-pretty prime-time matchup Monday night. The Cowboys have been a disaster lately, but so have the Texans, leading Von Tobel to take Dallas as +7.5 home underdogs.

“What initially sticks out is actually an ugly one,” Von Tobel says about the Week 11 schedule. “It has not really gone well for the Dallas Cowboys. The conversation this week is more about the sun and the stadium than it is about football. So they’re in a pretty tough spot, but I do think when you’re looking at the number here against Houston, catching 7.5 points at home, first off, the number sticks out.

“Houston at this point does not rate as highly as a team like Philadelphia does, and yet, they’re laying the exact same number in Dallas that Philadelphia was just this last week, so I think that’s a little bit of a red flag.”

The Eagles covered as -7 road favorites last week by crushing Cooper Rush and the Cowboys, 34–6. The Texans should beat the Cowboys, but they can’t be trusted as heavy favorites. Houston didn’t cover as -4 home favorites against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8 and got embarrassed by a bad New York Jets team in Week 9 as slight road underdogs.

The Texans did cover as +3.5 underdogs last week, but they failed to beat the Detroit Lions even though Jared Goff threw five interceptions. As Von Tobel mentioned, the Texans have been overrated and now have to face a strong defensive front led by Micah Parsons, who will likely feast against Houston’s poor offensive line, which has allowed 35 sacks this season.

“This offensive line has not been good,” says Von Tobel, the host of VSiN Primetime. “It’s been among the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys at least have the ability to rush the passer and disrupt that. We’ve seen time and time again this Texans team has been overvalued by the betting market, and its offensive line has derailed some really good games.”

As for one of the better prime-time games, Von Tobel has the Bengals as +1.5 road underdogs as one of his favorite bets of the week. He’s not buying into the Chargers’ standout defense because they haven’t been tested by an offense as good as Joe Burrow & Co.

Los Angeles has lost three of its four games against teams with winning records currently. The Chargers beat the Denver Broncos, but fell to the Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers (with Justin Fields) and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chargers are allowing a league-best 13.1 points per game and the Bengals are averaging 27.0 points per game, sixth best in the league.

“I think this Bengals squad is very good offensively and is going to be able to force this Chargers team to keep up with them,” Von Tobel says. “Look, they [the Bengals] didn’t really look great in the loss to the Eagles a couple weeks ago, but their offense has kind of taken off.”

Von Tobel has plenty of reasons to be confident in his Bengals bet, one being the sharps haven’t shown much interest in supporting the Chargers, who opened this week as -2.5 favorites and could possibly be in a pick’em game by kickoff.

As for the Thursday night game, consider taking the over on the total line of 48.5 points. Von Tobel said he wouldn’t be surprised if Eagles-Commanders turns into a shootout, similar to last week’s “TNF” game between the Baltimore Ravens and Bengals. He has many concerns about the Commanders’ defense, which is why he’s leaning toward the Eagles at -3.5 or passing on the game.

Not all of them can be winners, like Cowboys vs. Texans.

Manzano’s NFL Week 11 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook

Buck the trend: Colts (+4) at Jets

Von Tobel, a Colts fan, had plenty to say about his favorite team going back to Anthony Richardson after back-to-back dreadful starts from Joe Flacco against the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills.

For starters, Von Tobel mentioned that the Colts had gone 7–1 against the spread before benching Richardson and didn’t cover in the two games with Flacco. I’m taking the Colts here to cover with Richardson on the road against the overvalued Jets.

But the trends of the Jets being betting favorites and the Colts getting more points with Richardson than Flacco need to end. The Colts went from +3.5 underdogs with Flacco to +4 when the team announced going back to Richardson, the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft.

“I was staunchly against benching Anthony Richardson,” Von Tobel says. “One of the things that I kept harping on when we were talking about it on the show [VSiN Primetime], everybody kept getting wrapped up in the [five] games Joe Flacco played at the end of the regular season for Cleveland, forgetting the fact that he was available at the beginning of December, off the couch for a reason.

“Forgetting the fact that in the [sixth] game he played in the postseason, he was absolutely abysmal, and in those games he had thrown 10 total interceptions.”

Enticing Bet: Raiders (+7) at Dolphins

The last time we saw the Las Vegas Raiders they got crushed 41–24 by the Bengals. But they’re coming off a bye week and covered as heavy underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams before the ugly loss to the Bengals.

I’ll take the Silver and Black and the points here with the Dolphins coming off a short week after beating the Rams in Los Angeles on Monday night. Von Tobel is also on board with this one because the Dolphins’ offensive line has been a problem most of the season and now have to face Maxx Crosby.

Moneyline Dog: Steelers (+145) vs. Ravens

I’m going to take a chance on the Steelers because they have a strong defense, something the Bengals don’t have. Don’t expect the Ravens to go up and down the field with ease. Pittsburgh does have issues with the secondary, but T.J. Watt could minimize the downfield shots from Lamar Jackson.

I understand the Ravens have a dominant offense, but let’s not overlook the losses to the Raiders and Cleveland Browns. And the last time the Ravens faced a stout defense, they were held to 20 points against the Chiefs in Week 1.

Not So Risky: Chiefs (+2) at Bills

I’m really hoping I’m not taking a public underdog here. That’s usually the kiss of death, but it’s hard not to take Patrick Mahomes and the two points. The Chiefs are probably the one team that knows how to turn it on against the best teams in the league. Don’t worry about the ugly wins against the Raiders and Broncos in recent weeks. Kansas City will likely show its best in this Week 11 showdown in Buffalo.

Stay Away: 49ers (-6.5) vs. Seahawks

The San Francisco 49ers have owned the Seattle Seahawks’ number the past few seasons, but that’s too many points to lay against a divisional rival coming off a bye week. Also, the 49ers burned bettors last week by not covering as -6.5 favorites vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Parlay: Raiders (+7) at Dolphins; Chargers (-1.5) vs. Bengals; Patriots (+4.5) vs. Rams

Many are too focused on the matchup between Burrow and the Chargers’ standout defense. Justin Herbert has quietly been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season. I can see Herbert punishing this bad Bengals’ defense. If the defense can get stops, the Chargers have enough firepower to hang with Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. The Rams laid an egg at home against a bad Dolphins team. Now they have to fly across the country for the dreaded 10 a.m. body clock game. Drake Maye and the Patriots are capable of making this matchup close.

Survivor Pool: Packers (-230) at Bears

Taking a road team is risky with survivor pools, but the Bears haven’t done much right since the Hail Mary loss against the Commanders. Also, Caleb Williams is working with a new offensive coordinator after the team fired Shane Waldron and turned to Thomas Brown. If you haven’t taken the Packers this season, this might be a good opportunity, especially with many of the contenders scheduled to play each other this week. This could be a lopsided game for the Packers, who are coming off a bye week.

Best Over/Under Total: Chiefs-Bills (under 45.5, -108)

The Chiefs might lean on running back Kareem Hunt to break down the Bills’ suspect run defense, possibly turning this into a slow, grind-out game. On the other side, Josh Allen has to deal with Kansas City’s dominant defense and many of the Bills’ wide receivers are dealing with injuries. This could be a highly entertaining low-scoring game.