Vegas Views: Don’t Bet on Jets Over Patriots to Save Your Survivor Pool

Big favorites haven't faired well this season.

Gilberto Manzano | Sep 19, 2024

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers / Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Matt Youmans annually looks forward to Week 2 in the NFL because it’s an opportunity to bet against the overreactions that occurred from the first week.

But not even the sharpest bettors foresaw what transpired on the football field last week, when seven underdogs won on the moneyline, sending thousands of survivor pool entries into flames.

“It’s unprecedented chaos early in the NFL season,” says Youmans, a host and sports betting columnist at VSiN. “Unpredictability and upsets are the two best friends of the bookmakers, and through two weeks, the bookmakers are making a killing and the betting public is paying the price.”

It was a rough Sunday for sports bettors in Las Vegas, especially those who were eliminated from the $1,000-per-entry Circa Survivor contest. According to Mike Palm, the vice president of operations at the Circa, there were 3,878 entries eliminated in Week 2, including 2,304 that had the Baltimore Ravens, who blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Las Vegas Raiders, a nine-point underdog at most sportsbooks.

Six from the top eight teams selected lost in Week 2, including the Detroit Lions (859 entries), Philadelphia Eagles (785), Jacksonville Jaguars (259), Dallas Cowboys (255) and Indianapolis Colts (187), according to Palm.

The Circa Survivor contest, which started five years ago, received a record-high 14,266 entries this season. That’s now down to 3,877, wiping out 73% of the contestants after two weeks in the NFL. The contest didn’t lose 73% of its entries until after Week 3 the past two seasons.

Youmans lost one of his Circa entries because he attempted to “steal one” early in the season with the shaky Jaguars having a favorable home match against the Cleveland Browns. His other entry had the Houston Texans, who prevailed over the Chicago Bears, keeping him alive in the popular survivor contest.

With all the unforeseen chaos, perhaps this could sway the public to take more underdogs when it comes to the survivor pool and betting against the spread, but Youmans has lived in Las Vegas long enough to know the public rarely changes how it operates.

“I think in general the betting public has a one-track mind,” Youmans says. “Most bettors are always going to think the same way, and that’s, ‘I’m going to bet the better teams, the favorites, because that’s the safe option.’ Believe me, I know all kinds of bettors, some of the sharpest sharps and some of the squarest squares, and they never change their spots.”

For those bold enough to change their approach, Youmans offered these stats: “Underdogs of six points or more are 8–0 against the spread through the first two weeks. Think about that for a second. Big dogs have not yet failed to cover a game. Also, going into Week 3, we have not had a double-digit favorite yet in the NFL.”

As of late Wednesday, the New England Patriots were +6 underdogs against the New York Jets for their Thursday night matchup. Palm doesn’t see the public taking the Patriots and the points, despite all the upsets in the NFL. He’s expecting the Jets to be a trendy pick for those still alive in the survivor contest.

“People generally don’t like to use the Thursday night game in a contest,” Palm says. “But the Jets are at home against the Patriots and are six-point favorites, so you might see a higher percentage than normal.”

Youmans advised that this Thursday Night Football game should be looked at as Patriots or pass. He’s not buying into the Jets’ Week 2 victory because they caught a break with the Tennessee Titans having turnover-prone Will Levis.

A potential safe pick for survivor contests could be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the 0–2 Denver Broncos. But Palm mentioned that some might wait to use the Buccaneers because they play the struggling Carolina Panthers twice this season.

The Buccaneers were -6.5 favorites as of Wednesday, perhaps a game the sharps keep an eye on because of the underdogs being undefeated with six points or more. It’s tough seeing the public taking the points here with how bad the Broncos have looked and the Buccaneers coming off a statement win in Detroit.

As for a nugget from the NFL MVP futures at the Circa, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield went down from 100–1 odds to 45–1. But Derek Carr, who has the New Orleans Saints at 2–0, made the biggest jump, going from 200–1 odds to 40–1, according to Palm.

Many sharp bettors tend to look for desperate 0–2 teams to support. Just don’t expect it to be the winless Cincinnati Bengals because they’re -7.5 favorites against the Washington Commanders, the biggest spread of the week.

Youmans is betting on the 0–2 Ravens to bounce back on the road against the Cowboys for multiple reasons, the biggest being Dallas’s stagnant run game going against Baltimore’s stout defense. This one is essentially a pick’em with Baltimore being -1 favorites as of Wednesday.

As for the remaining survivor contestants, some might be hesitant to pick the Ravens after their loss to the Raiders. For those who got burned by the Ravens, there’s always next year, and Circa will be waiting for the $1,000 entries because they usually come back.

“When they lose or when they get knocked out, it’s usually something strange that happens,” Palm says. “A quarterback gets hurt during a game, the Ravens blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to the Raiders, [Eagles coach] Nick Sirianni throws a pass that Saquon [Barkley] drops. Everybody goes, ‘Why didn’t he run the ball and run it out? How could he make one of the most boneheaded decisions in coaching? That’s how I got eliminated.’

“So because it’s usually a bad beat or something extraordinary happened, people can’t wait to get in next year, because they say, ‘How could it happen to me again?’”

Manzano’s NFL Week 3 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook

Stick with the Trend: Saints (-3) vs. Eagles

Unfortunately, I spoke with Youmans after I made my weekly Sports Illustrated picks. I now have regrets about picking the Eagles over the Saints because Youmans reminded me of how bad Philadelphia has been defensively.

Listen to Youmans here because Alvin Kamara, coming off a four-touchdown performance against the Cowboys, could have his way against the Eagles’ struggling run defense.

Youmans is worried about the public being on the side of the undefeated Saints. This Week 3 game opened with the Eagles being -3.5 favorites at some sportsbooks, but the line shifted after the upset loss to the Falcons on Monday Night Football. Perhaps avoid this one if the Saints go as high as -3.5.

“I’m on the Saints, which scares me a little bit,” Youmans says. “I got Saints +1.5 at the Westgate Superbook and now it’s -2.5. The public is going to get behind teams off to a hot start. You’re seeing a flood of Saints bets on the Super Bowl futures. They’re 2–0, Derek Carr looks like a different quarterback with the new offensive coordinator, and they’re playing an Eagles team that just blew the game … Everybody is down on the Eagles. The rush defense stinks.”

Enticing Bet: Falcons (+3.5) vs. Chiefs

The Chiefs’ offense could take a hit with the injury to running back Isiah Pacheco and the lack of depth at the position. Also, the Falcons have standout safeties Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons to possibly take away Xavier Worthy from Patrick Mahomes. This could be a close game after the Falcons found a rhythm in the comeback win against the Eagles.

Moneyline Dog: Cardinals (+130) vs. Lions

I’ll keep it simple here. The Cardinals can score points in a hurry and the Lions have gotten off to a slow start offensively. Jared Goff hasn’t looked as good as last season and will now face a well-coached Cardinals defense away from the comfort of Ford Field. If Arizona can limit the damage from Lions star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, they’ll have an opportunity to win this game after crushing the Rams a week ago.

Not So Risky: Bills (-5) vs. Jaguars

I won’t back the Jaguars anymore after they ruined Youmans’s survivor entry and made me look foolish after picking them to beat the Dolphins and Browns the past two weeks.

Trevor Lawrence has accuracy issues and the offense can’t get on the same page. The Bills don’t have chemistry issues and appear well on their way to possibly winning another AFC East crown.

Stay Away: Bears at Colts (-1.5); Texans (-2) at Vikings

The Bears and Colts could be two of the most disappointing teams after many expected them to be surprise playoff contenders this season. Chicago’s offensive line can’t protect Caleb Williams, but Indianapolis hasn’t had much of a pass rush through two games. And both quarterbacks, Williams and Anthony Richardson, can’t protect the football. Stay far away from this one.

Here’s a bonus game to avoid from Youmans. He’s high on both the Texans and Vikings, but he’s not a fan of the spread after the line moved from Vikings +3.5 to +2 for the home team.

“I’m not going to play that game, especially under 3,” Youmans says. “I think the Texans are legit, but I also think the Vikings are legit. And Kevin O’Connell is another example of a smart offensive coach who can turn around a quarterback who’s been lost. And I’m not saying Sam Darnold is going to be an MVP candidate because he’s going to have weeks where he looks like the old Sam Darnold who throws picks and makes mistakes. But Justin Jefferson’s status is up in the air, too.”

Parlay: Commanders (+7.5) at Bengals; Giants (+6.5) at Browns; 49ers at Rams (+7)

I again whiffed on my parlay last week. I’m now 0–6 on my legs this season, which I’m embarrassed to share. This is why I rarely do parlays, but for this week, I’ll lean on Youmans’s stat about teams being undefeated when they have six points or more against the spread. Let’s see if the trend continues.

Survivor Pool: Steelers (-120) over Chargers

I came close to picking the Buccaneers over the Broncos, but I couldn’t look at myself in the mirror. Avoiding the heavy favorites has worked in my favor with all the upsets that have occurred. In Week 1, I went with the Seahawks over the Broncos, and picked the Texans over the Bears last week.

So I’m taking the Steelers at home over the Chargers in a game they’re slight favorites. I felt better about this pick after hearing Youmans’s assessment.

“They’re [Chargers] a little bit phony at 2–0 right now,” he says. “When you see some of these defensive statistics, let’s face it, the Raiders were awful offensively in Week 1, and then in Week 2 the Chargers catch Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers. In terms of strength of schedule at this point, nobody has had it easier than the Chargers. That’s going to be a different story when they go into Pittsburgh against that defense.”

Best Over/Under Total: Bills-Jaguars (over 45.5, -110)

Again, those Jaguars owe me. I’m expecting them to give up at least 30 points to Josh Allen and the Bills. Hopefully Jacksonville can do its part and score a few times. They owe many people.