Vegas Views: Public Bettors Get Risky Backing Bengals Over Giants While Sharps Pick Seahawks Over 49ers

Perception continues to drive public betting in Week 6.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Bengals annoyed public bettors for most of the first month of the NFL season. But they’re now on the bad side of the Las Vegas sportsbooks after blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens last week.  

It was a good Sunday for public bettors thanks to the Bengals’ collapse and the Washington Commanders’ domination of the Cleveland Browns. It was by far the worst week of the season at the Westgate Superbook. 

“This past Sunday was definitely our worst of the year by a pretty wide margin,” says John Murray, the Director of Sports and Race at the Westgate SuperBook. “We really needed the Bengals in the morning game. We certainly thought they should have won that game. They kind of blew it in the end.”  

All the Bengals needed to do was move the ball another 10 yards or so for an easier field goal after receiving a gift from Lamar Jackson’s fumble in overtime. Instead, Cincinnati sat on the ball and had a missed kick. 

The Bengals made the sportsbooks plenty of money when they lost as heavy favorites to the New England Patriots in the season opener and vs. Commanders in Week 3. They also cost the public money when they covered in Week 2 with most of the money riding on the Kansas City Chiefs. 

“They can’t do anything right,” Murray jokingly says about the Bengals. “It’s funny because they’re so good offensively and they just move the ball up and down the field, and then …” 

NFL bettors know very well about the outcomes of Bengals games this season, but Murray doesn’t expect the public to shy away from Joe Burrow & Co. when they go on the road as -3.5 favorites against the New York Giants. It’s a bit strange that the 1–4 team is the favorite, even though the Giants are at home coming off an upset road victory vs. the Seattle Seahawks. But Murray and his team at the Westgate view the Bengals as a good team with a rocky start to the season. Or the sportsbooks just know the public has a hard time giving up on the Bengals because they have Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. 

This line is more bait for fooling the public into bets that back a team that shouldn’t be considered a favorite regularly. 

“I think when the dust settles on Sunday we’re going to be rooting for the Giants,” Murray says. “I think enough people will talk themselves into the Bengals as that -3.5 road favorite, that’s my guess. Even after they won Sunday in Seattle, I still can’t picture the betting public supporting the Giants, but maybe I’m wrong about that. I can tell you Seattle was a team that got a huge percentage of the bets last Sunday.”

The Seahawks hurt the public bettors in Week 5, which could be why many of them are expected to back the struggling San Francisco 49ers, who are -3.5 favorites for the Thursday Night Football matchup. The 49ers also had a home upset loss last week after falling to the Arizona Cardinals, but reputations are hard to shake off and they’re known as a good team to the public. 

“We have seen respected players taking Seattle +3.5,” Murray says. “The public is mostly on the 49ers. It’s been good two-way action.” 

Public perceptions of teams don’t often change week to week—unless it involves the unpredictable Bengals. That’s something the sharps enjoy taking advantage of. 

The public might have jumped on the Commanders’s bandwagon sooner than expected, leading to the Westgate taking a financial loss after Washington’s victory against the Browns.

“All of a sudden, Washington is this hot public team, which I never would have thought coming into the season,” Murray says.

The Commanders are now a public underdog favorite, with Jayden Daniels’s squad getting +6.5 points for the Week 6 showdown against the Ravens. 

“I have a feeling that it’s going to be a very popular public dog play, which is generally a kiss of death,” Murray says. “Usually when the public lines up on an underdog it does not go well for them. That’s the way I see this game shaping up. Baltimore is priced as if they are maybe the best team in the league. That’s why they were laying points in Dallas. That’s why they were laying points in Cincinnati.”

The public was early to the Commanders’s party, but we’ll soon find out whether they were late leaving it.  

  

Manzano’s NFL Week 6 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook 

Buck the Trend: Giants (+3.5) vs. Bengals    

I won’t be fooled by the Bengals here. This should be Giants +3.5 or pass because the Bengals haven’t proven they can cover as favorites. Sure, they covered against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4, but the Giants aren’t the Panthers. New York kept it close against Dallas and had an impressive road victory against Seattle. 

The Giants have the defensive front to slow Burrow and Chase on Sunday. Don’t be fooled by the Bengals again. 

Enticing Bet: Jets (+2.5) vs. Bills   

Don’t overlook the bump teams generally get during the first game with an interim head coach. The firing of Robert Saleh didn’t change the Jets’ odds of winning the Super Bowl—they’re still at 30–1 at the Westgate. But one sharp bettor is high on the Jets for this week. 

“We have a sharp customer here who bet the Jets +3,” Murray says. “That’s why we’re at +2.5 for the Jets. It’s not because of Coach Saleh being let go or the new coach [Jeff Ulbrich]. I will say this, I don’t see how it could go much worse for them in terms of how they’re coached. To me, I don’t know if it was Saleh’s fault as much as it was [Nathaniel] Hackett’s fault, the offensive coordinator.”

Moneyline Dog: Broncos (+130) vs. Chargers  

The Chargers will be well rested coming off a bye week, but rest won’t solve their offensive struggles against one of the best defenses in the league. Patrick Surtain II and his defensive teammates might take away Justin Herbert’s passing game to make the Chargers one-dimensional. I’ll take the home team that just beat the Buccaneers, Jets, and Raiders the past three weeks. 

Also, the sharps are halfway home to getting the over on the Broncos’ win total of 5.5 games. Many underestimated what Sean Payton could do in his second season in Denver. 

“Denver over wins was a sharp bet that we did see,” Murray says. “It made sense because you’ve got this team with a good, young defense. I like Sean Payton and to ask them to go 6–11 is really not asking a whole lot. They had a tough schedule in September. They had trips to Seattle, Tampa Bay, and the Jets, but their schedule is going to get a lot more manageable here now the rest of the way.” 

Not So Risky: Bears (-2) vs. Jaguars in London

The Chicago Bears are on the rise now that the offense has improved to help the standout defense. Caleb Williams, who’s coming off his best career game against the Panthers, will face a suspect Jaguars defense that couldn’t slow Colts backup Joe Flacco last week. Trevor Lawrence could force a few turnovers against a Bears’ defense that has generated 11 takeaways and is only allowing 17 points per game. 

 

Stay Away: Texans (-7) at Patriots 

This will be an enticing bet because the Texans are facing rookie Drake Maye in his starting debut. But the Texans have had sluggish victories and didn’t look the same without Nico Collins in the second half of last week’s victory against the Bills. With Collins on injured reserve, this line is too big to place a bet on Houston. Maybe Maye makes the Patriots better after how poorly it went with Jacoby Brissett the past few games.  

Parlay: Buccaneers (-3.5) at Saints; Broncos (+3) vs. Chargers; Falcons (-6) at Panthers   

I try to stay away from supporting strong favorites with -6 points or more, but I’m buying into the Falcons’ turnaround. The offense is clicking and the defense has played well most of the season. The Panthers might once again be the worst team in the league now that their surprising Week 3 win against the Raiders has become a distant memory. 

Survivor Pool: Titans (-135) vs. Colts 

I’m still surviving after five weeks. My “Don’t be a coward” approach has worked in my favor during this year filled with upsets. But going with home teams might be the real reason why I’m 5–0 this season. 

The Tennessee Titans are coming off a bye week and seemed to have turned a corner in the Week 4 victory against the Miami Dolphins. They’ll be pushed by the Colts, but they might have a rusty quarterback if Anthony Richardson returns to take the job from Flacco. 

Best Over/Under Total: Chargers-Broncos (over 35.5, -112) 

Going over here is a risky bet with two dominant defenses and bad offenses. But the Broncos’ offense scored 27 points last week vs. the Raiders. And maybe the bye week helps the Chargers score more points than usual. 

  

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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