Vegas Views: Sharps Betting Colts vs Lions and Commanders vs Cowboys in NFL Week 12

Gilberto Manzano | Nov 21, 2024

Sharps in Vegas are betting on the Colts and Commanders this week. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys have caused problems for Las Vegas sportsbooks for the opposite reasons.

The free-falling Cowboys continue to cost the sportsbooks money because they can't cover a big spread. Cowboys’ opponents have received strong support from the public and sharps and Dallas has failed to cover the spread in its last five games, including the last two where they were 7-point underdogs or more.

This week, the Washington Commanders opened as -9.5 home favorites against the Cowboys, but the spread went up to -10.5 by Wednesday morning because of sharp money, according to Jay Kornegay, the EVP at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

As for the mighty Lions, they're covering the spread no matter how big it is. They easily covered the 14-point spread last week, beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 52–6. They also scored a 50-burger vs. the Tennessee Titans to cover 12.5 points in Week 8. It’s starting to get to the point where public bettors won’t even look at the spread whenever the Lions are playing a bad team.

“There’s no doubt that we need whoever the Lions are playing, especially when they’re mediocre or poor teams,” Kornegay says. “The oddsmakers have been making adjustments over the last few weeks to catch up with their performances, but as you can see, we haven’t quite reached that point yet.”

The Westgate SuperBook oddsmakers had a tough time gauging the Lions’ Week 12 road game because the Indianapolis Colts might be considered by some as a unique mediocre team. The Westgate had the Colts as +8 underdogs and the line dropped to +7.5 because of sharp money on Indy. But Kornegay is expecting the Lions to be heavily backed by the public before Sunday’s kickoff because many view them as the best team in the NFL.

It’s understandable why some sharps see value in the Colts, though. Anthony Richardson gave Indianapolis a boost after returning from a brief two-game benching. Then again, the Colts needed a late rally and only beat the struggling New York Jets by one point last week. But it wasn’t that long ago the Lions failed to cover as -3.5 road favorites against the Texans. Perhaps this is one game to avoid, but the public won’t be able to resist backing the Lions against the inconsistent Colts with a spread under double digits.

“The Colts are an undervalued team,” Kornegay says. “They’re coached very well and they certainly can compete during any week. I think the Richardson factor makes it more intriguing for the sharp players out there.”

While the Westgate SuperBook oddsmakers agree the Lions are the best team in the NFL, the “back room” is split on where the Baltimore Ravens rank after an ugly loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. The Ravens can be a juggernaut offensively, but they also have embarrassing losses to the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns.

Those who still view the Ravens as contenders might have won the debate at the Westgate SuperBook because Lamar Jackson & Co. are -3 road favorites against the surging Los Angeles Chargers, who are coming off an impressive win against the Cincinnati Bengals.

“It's a very interesting matchup and I’m glad it’s on Monday night because it’s going to get tremendous action,” Kornegay says. “It’s going to be a very, very popular game. We have a difference of opinion in the back room on the Ravens, and there are a few of us, including myself, that still think the Ravens are a top-four team where others disagree.”

The last time the Ravens lost, they responded with a 41–10 rout of the Denver Broncos in Week 9. Also, Kornegay argued the Ravens shouldn’t be heavily penalized for the bad game vs. the Steelers because their divisional opponent has had their number over the years. The Chargers' defense has been impressive, but they struggled with Joe Burrow extending plays last week and will now have to deal with Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Kornegay referred to the Green Bay Packers as "underachieving" because Jordan Love has been inconsistent this season, but they’re at home this week and their issues aren’t as bad as the ones the San Francisco 49ers have had. Kornegay said he’s surprised the Packers were only favored by -1.5 points vs. the 49ers based on what the Westgate SuperBook had as of Wednesday afternoon.

Many sportsbooks had the Packers as -2 favorites, but don’t be surprised if the 49ers get more love from the sharps to essentially make this a pick’em game by kickoff Sunday. They’re a desperate, talented team and maybe that could lead to an impressive performance in Green Bay.

Manzano’s NFL Week 12 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook

Stick to the trend: Broncos (-6) at Raiders

The Broncos opened the week as -3.5 favorites at the Westgate SuperBook, but jumped to -5.5 after most of the early money favored Bo Nix & Co.

Not sure if Kornegay wants his beloved Broncos to cover for the sake of his sportsbook, but he wouldn’t mind seeing them beat the hometown Raiders, especially if he can convince his family to attend the game at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday.

Bet on the Broncos with confidence because of how well Nix has played the past two months. Denver also has an underrated defense to contain the Raiders’ sluggish offense.

Enticing Bet: Bears (+3.5) vs. Vikings

The Chicago Bears’ standout defense has gotten lost amid all the chaos surrounding the team the past month. They gave Love plenty of fits last week and could do the same with Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. I do worry about Caleb Williams turning the ball over against Brian Flores and his Vikings’ defense, but I’m betting on this divisional battle to remain close for four quarters.

Moneyline Dog: Patriots (+310) at Dolphins

Maybe the safer pick here would be 49ers (+105) over Packers, but there’s not enough value there. Might as well take the 2.5 points for the 49ers with those odds. I’m going bold here and taking a chance on the Patriots, who kept it close against the Los Angeles Rams last week. The Miami Dolphins’ offense hasn’t been as explosive as the past two seasons and they’ve had Tua Tagovailoa for the past month.

Not So Risky: Steelers (-3.5) at Browns

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers win this game 12–3 with only field goals from Chris Boswell, who drilled six last week in the win against the Ravens. It might be safe to say this Browns team has checked out on the season after how poorly they played vs. the New Orleans Saints last week.

Stay Away: Eagles (-2.5) at Rams

Part of me wants to take the Rams and the points, but they’ve been too inconsistent. They went from beating the Vikings and Seattle Seahawks in back-to-back weeks to laying an egg in the loss against the Dolphins and barely beating the Patriots. L.A. also had a clunky victory against the Raiders last month, but part of me believes Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp will have stellar performances vs. Vic Fangio’s Philly defense. I would rather stay away from this one.

Parlay: Cardinals (+1) at Seahawks; 49ers (+2) at Packers; Chargers (+2.5) vs. Ravens

Give me the Cardinals coming off a bye week and they’ve already beaten the Rams and 49ers. They could have another strong performance during this first-place battle in the NFC West. Similar to last week, too many people are overlooking the Chargers. They have a star quarterback in Justin Herbert and a stout defense. And, again, I’m taking the desperate 49ers.

Survivor Pool: Buccaneers (-265) at Giants

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still playing for the NFC South crown while the Giants are starting Tommy DeVito in a lost season. Expect Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles to blitz at a high rate. It’s wild to think the Buccaneers aren’t far behind the Atlanta Falcons in the division, despite the four-game losing streak.

Best Over/Under Total: Texans-Titans (under 41, -110)

I’m going to follow the sharp money here. Kornegay mentioned that this line quickly dropped from 42 to 41 at the Westgate Sportsbook because of the sharps. The Texans haven’t fixed their offensive issues and will face a tough Titans defense. And the Texans probably won’t have much trouble vs. Will Levis.