Vegas Views: Wagering on 49ers, Chiefs as Heavy Favorites Could Fool NFL Bettors Again

Sharps on the Jags in Week 4, Public still betting on favorites

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

After three weeks of being fooled by the favorites, the public might not be able to resist betting on them once again in Week 4 of the NFL season. 

For the first time this season, there will likely be a double-digit favorite. The desperate San Francisco 49ers host the struggling New England Patriots, who are coming off an ugly performance against the New York Jets. At one point Wednesday, the 49ers were on the board as 11-point favorites at Station Casinos sportsbooks across Las Vegas before the line dropped to -10.5. 

Some Kansas City Chiefs supporters might be counting their money already too because the back-to-back Super Bowl champions face a banged-up Los Angeles Chargers team that will probably be without several key players. But the Chiefs will be on the road and have to make up plenty of ground as -7.5 favorites.  

Last week, five out of the six teams that were underdogs of +5.5 points or more won their respective game outright. The Washington Commanders (+7.5 vs. Bengals), the New York Giants (+6.5 vs. Browns), the Denver Broncos (+6 vs. the Buccaneers), the Carolina Panthers (+5.5 vs. Raiders) and the Los Angeles Rams (+6 vs. the 49ers) all pulled out upset wins. Four of those five teams were on the road. It was more of the same in the first two weeks of the season with the biggest underdogs winning their games outright. 

The only team that didn’t cover from that +5.5 group in Week 3 was the Patriots (+6.5 vs. the Jets), which could explain why many bettors are willing to look past the 49ers’ laundry list of injuries and sizable spread on Sunday.  

“Whatever we thought we knew about pro football going into the season, we don’t know anything,” says Chuck Esposito, the race and sports director for Station Casinos. “It’s really been an unusual start to the season. The teams that you expected to be really good, you can throw in the Cowboys, 49ers and the Ravens in the mix, they’re all below .500. … We’ve seen that happen in three straight weeks, dogs winning outright.”

The public might not have learned its lesson from the unpredictability of the first three weeks, but the two games with wide spreads in Week 4 could also test the sharp bettors. There’s value in taking 10-plus points with the way the season has gone so far. Brock Purdy is dealing with a back injury and likely won’t have Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey on the field. Also, the defense has plenty of issues, especially with the potential season-ending pectoral injury to defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. 

Even with all the injuries on the 49ers’ side, it might be best to avoid this game because the Patriots probably showed their true colors in the blowout loss to the Jets and now have to get on the plane across the country against a talented team in need of a win. But they are on 10 days’ rest, another reason to avoid this one. 

There’s a stronger case to be made for the Chiefs to cover against the Chargers. Justin Herbert is dealing with an ankle injury and his tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, could be long shots to play against Chris Jones & Co. 

I would also avoid this game because of favorites failing to cover spreads over 5.5 points. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Chiefs jump out to an early double-digit lead before cruising at the end for the victory and a Chargers backdoor cover. 

As for one game the sharps won’t avoid, Esposito is expecting plenty of money to come in throughout the week on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are +6.5 underdogs against the Houston Texans, as of late Wednesday. 

“I think the public is going to back the Texans really heavily, but we have seen some early sharp play on the Jags, especially at +7 points,” Esposito says. “The Jags have been arguably one of the bigger disappointments in the league so far.”

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is one of many signal-callers who have struggled this season. Esposito said that could explain the high amount of total lines going under this season, including 11 of 16 games in Week 3.

It might be better to bet the under in games instead of betting against underdogs in the NFL. 

“You got young quarterbacks who are really struggling right now,” Esposito says. “I think all that kind of plays into when you’re looking at some of these games, why you’re seeing a lot more games go under and a lot more parity in the league as well.”

Manzano’s NFL Week 4 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook 

Buck the Trend: Vikings (+2.5) at Packers  

Esposito mentioned that the Packers are 6–1 against the spread in their last seven games, including the past two games with Malik Willis as the starting quarterback. 

This line could shift a bit if Jordan Love is cleared to play, but it seems the sportsbooks have already accounted for that likelihood with the Vikings being the underdogs, despite their strong start to the season. 

Keep riding the Vikings because both the offense and defense are playing well. And maybe this stifling defensive front puts plenty of pressure on a rusty Love who probably won’t be at full strength if given the green light to play.  

Enticing Bet: Ravens (-2.5) vs. Bills 

I won’t take credit for this one if the Ravens cover because I picked the Bills to win this game. But I just want to relay what Esposito said about this intriguing Week 4 showdown.  

“I think the public is going to be more on the Bills right now,” Esposito says. “We’ve seen ticket count at about 65% that favor the Bills. I’m just curious to see if the sharps drive this number back. I think there’s some value with the Ravens playing at home on Sunday Night Football.” 

Moneyline Dog: Broncos (+295) at Jets  

I won’t offer much analysis other than look at all the upsets that have occurred in the NFL. The Broncos’ defense has played well most of the season, and Bo Nix might have turned a corner last week in Tampa Bay. Maybe don’t toss big money here, but it’s worth a play. 

Not So Risky: Commanders (+3.5) at Cardinals 

I’m torn here because these are two of my sleeper teams for the 2024 season. The Commanders are finally getting some praise after Jayden Daniels’s sensational performance to upset the Bengals on Monday Night Football. I think they’ll continue that momentum and keep it close on the road against the Cardinals, who struggled last week against the Lions. Washington hasn’t had a punt or a turnover since Week 1.

Stay Away: Jaguars (+6.5) at Texans 

I know the sharps are taking the points with the Jaguars, which is understandable because the Texans have struggled to score points in their past two games. But I can’t back a Jaguars team that can’t get much right on the offensive side. It might be a long time before they win a game this season. 

Parlay: Panthers (+4) vs. Bengals; Colts (+1.5) vs. Steelers; Buccaneers (+2) vs. Eagles  

Last week, my method of taking teams with +6 or more against the spread worked out, hitting my first parlay of the season. I’ll tweak my strategy a bit and take home underdogs for this week’s parlay. 

Survivor Pool: Buccaneers (+110) vs. Eagles 

I’m doubling up on the Buccaneers here, which scares me a bit. But I’m happy to report that my “Don’t be a coward” approach helped me win my survivor pool that had many high school and college friends, which made my victory sweeter. Many of them backed the heavy favorites, making this pool short-lived. The Buccaneers are better than what they showed last week vs. the Broncos. I’m expecting them to make it right at home in a 50/50 game against the Eagles. 

Best Over/Under Total: Vikings-Packers (over 43.5, -112) 

Esposito had one more trend from this game. In six of the last eight games between the Vikings and Packers, the over has hit. I’m following the trend here and taking the over for this NFC North clash. 

  

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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