Vegas Views: Washington Commanders Provide Value at 50–1 Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Commanders still not getting much betting support yet.

Gilberto Manzano | Oct 3, 2024

Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Las Vegas South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews had no problem sharing that he thought the Washington Commanders would be bad this season.

“I didn’t have much respect for that team going into the season,” says Andrews. “Almost nobody did, really. I wasn’t making some bold statement. Almost nobody thought much about them.”

Not many can say they were right about the Commanders because, at 3–1, they’re one of the biggest surprise teams of the NFL season. They sit atop the NFC East standings and might have the next star quarterback after a sensational September for rookie Jayden Daniels.

I nearly told Andrews I was one of the few who thought the Commanders would be better this season, but there was no sense in bragging because I didn’t predict them to make the playoffs. Clearly, the Commanders are ahead of schedule in this new era with coach Dan Quinn, GM Adams Peters and the ownership group led by Josh Harris.

It’s not too late to join the Commanders’ bandwagon, though. There’s plenty of room because Andrews said there hasn’t been much money coming in on Daniels & Co. when it comes to the futures market. They went from 250–1 odds to win Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans to 50–1 after their hot start.

“I don’t know if they’re good enough to win the Super Bowl, but they’re certainly an improved team,” Andrews says. “I think they have a great chance to win the division.”

The odds have drastically gone down for the Commanders to win it all, but they still provide plenty of value compared to the other surprise teams in the NFL, like the 4–0 Minnesota Vikings, who have 12–1 odds at Station Casinos in Las Vegas. Sam Darnold and the Vikings haven’t been neglected in the futures market.

“We have a slight liability with the Vikings,” says Chuck Esposito, the race and sports director for Station Casinos. “When you look at that division, there was some case to be made that going into the season [the Vikings] were definitely behind the Lions and Packers, and with the uncertainty of their quarterback position, and the Bears appearing to be trending in the right direction, that they might be the fourth-best team in that division.”

Obviously, that wasn’t the case with the undefeated Vikings, but they’re in a tough NFC North division, putting Esposito at ease about all the money riding on Minnesota possibly playing in February.

It might be better to back Washington because the NFC East isn’t as strong. Winning the division over the struggling Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys could set the Commanders up well for a surprise postseason run come January.

The oddsmakers have taken notice of the Commanders. They’re -3.5 favorites at most sportsbooks for Sunday’s home matchup against the Cleveland Browns.

Esposito mentioned the Browns likely would have been -3 favorites if this game occurred a month ago. Washington has covered the past three games, including winning outright as road underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals.

Not many expected the Commanders to be in first place heading into October, but the same can be said for the Vikings and the 3–1 Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers leading the NFC South isn’t as surprising, but there was plenty of hype for the Atlanta Falcons with the addition of Kirk Cousins. Tampa Bay (+1.5) and Atlanta meet Thursday night to kick off Week 5 in the NFL.

“If you [looked ahead and] went down every division in the NFC, everybody would be stunned because I don’t think anybody would have those teams,” Esposito says. “Maybe the Bucs, but the Falcons got so much ink in the offseason with the addition of Kirk Cousins, but the other three for sure. … It’s a total flip of the script in the NFC.”

It might be anyone's year in the unpredictable NFC, another reason to take a ticket on the Commanders winning the Super Bowl.

Manzano’s NFL Week 5 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook

Buck the Trend: Bengals (+2.5) vs. Ravens

The public is strongly backing the Ravens at the South Point, according to Andrews. That’s not surprising because the Bengals burned bettors in upset losses against the New England Patriots and Commanders. Also, the Ravens have looked good in back-to-back wins vs. the Buffalo Bills and Cowboys.

But the Bengals have played well offensively in recent weeks and have enough firepower to hang with the Ravens in case the defense struggles against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. There’s plenty of pressure on both sides because of their slow starts. I’ll take the home team who needs this win more.

Enticing Bet: Cowboys (+2.5) at Steelers

Andrews, who’s originally from Pittsburgh, is concerned about the many injuries on the Steelers’ offensive line. They started 3–0 partly because the offensive line excelled at protecting Justin Fields and providing running lanes for the rushing attack.

The Steelers might not be able to generate enough points against the duo of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Pittsburgh’s secondary was exposed a bit last week against the Indianapolis Colts.

“We always look at those clusters of injuries in a particular position that could really hurt a team,” Andrews says. “Right now, I’m not crazy about the Cowboys. They have a whole mess of problems, but the Steelers suddenly have some problems, too, that your casual fan may not be aware of.”

Moneyline Dog: Colts (+124) at Jaguars

The statuses of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor are up in the air due to injuries. But the Colts have Joe Flacco and enough depth at running back with Trey Sermon to hang on the road against the winless Jaguars. Not much has gone right for the Jaguars, making this dog worth the risk.

Not So Risky: Packers (-3) at Rams

The Los Angeles Rams might have the worst secondary in the league, and now they have to face the Green Bay Packers’ standout passing attack with Jordan Love, who shook off the rust last week against the Vikings.

Matthew Stafford doesn’t have enough weapons to keep pace with the Packers because of the injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The public will be backing the Packers heavily, which might not be a good thing.

“It’s just a Rams team that’s beat up with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua hurt,” Esposito says. “I think it’s just tough against a Packers team that’s a high-powered offense here, who comes off a home loss. My guess is by kick off we’re clearly going to be Rams fans. At -3, it’s been one sided for the Packers.”

Stay Away: Bills (-1) at Texans

The Bills are coming off an ugly loss against the Ravens, but there’s an argument to be made that they have played better most of the season compared to the Houston Texans, which could explain why they’re not favorites as the home team.

C.J. Stroud needed a late rally to get by the Jaguars at home last week after getting crushed by the Vikings the week prior. It might be safer to avoid this game and enjoy the battle between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs’s new team.

Parlay: Raiders (+2.5) at Broncos; Cardinals (+7) at 49ers; Saints (+5.5) at Chiefs

I’m going with three road dogs here. The Broncos have a strong defense, but failed to reach 10 points last week. The Saints will get to face a short-handed Chiefs team that won’t have Marquise Brown, Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. I don’t feel good about the Cardinals, but teams with +7 points have been hitting at a frequent rate this season.

“Both the public and sharps have been taking the 49ers this week,” Andrews says.

Survivor Pool: Commanders (-168) vs. Browns

Hopefully you’ve been taking my advice here because I’m still alive with a perfect 4-for-4. My “Don’t be a coward” approach has gotten me this far, so once again I’ll avoid a heavy favorite, like the 49ers at home vs. the Cardinals. The Commanders have been good to me this season, no reason to jump off the bandwagon now.

Best Over/Under Total: Browns-Commanders (over 43.5, -112)

I’m riding with the Commanders again. Daniels will continue his hot streak and produce many touchdowns at home against a tough Cleveland defense. Hopefully Deshaun Watson & Co. do their part here.

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