Can Tyreek Hill Break 1,150 Yards This Season?

Should you bet the over or the under on Tyreek Hill's receiving yards?

Oddsmakers set the Chiefs receiver’s total receiving yards at 1,150 yards. Should gamblers bet on the over or under? Sports Illustrated’s gambling analysts weigh in. 

Since 2017 only five wide receivers have more total receiving yards than Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs playmaker is the only one in that group to play less than 44 games in that time-span. In 2019 the speedy receiver missed four games due to a shoulder/clavicle injury. If it wasn’t for the four game absence he would have surpassed 1,100 yards for the third straight season. When looking at his total receiving yards prop, it’s clear the oddsmakers aren’t making gamblers bet on if Hill will be productive but rather if Hill will be healthy. Find out why both Sports Illustrated’s gambling analyst Frank Taddeo and ArrowHeadReport’s Joshua Brisco say taking the over on his 1,150 receiving yards for 2020 is an easy decision.

Read the transcript for their analysis:

Bill Enright: Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill has surpassed 1,150 receiving yards in two of his last three seasons. He probably did it in 2019, but he missed a handful of games due to injury. Let's find out what our experts predict for Hill's yardage total in 2020 by talking with Joshua Brisco, who covers the Chiefs. And also Frank Taddeo gambling analyst here at Sports Illustrated. Frank, I'm going to go to you first. What's the over under total and what side of the fence are you coming down on? Retiree kills, receiving yards. 

Frank Taddeo: Yeah, Bill, right now, the oddsmakers have him listed as the sixth most receiving yard projection among all wide receivers on the betting board in 2020with a number set at 1,150.5 Yards. And right now, Bill. I tend to agree with that number. I think that number is actually even probably a little bit too low. I think that he actually cracks the top five this season. My model right now has him at 1,289 yards. And I'm willing to gamble, Bill, that if he's able to avoid injury, he's actually easily able to average the 71.9 receiving yards per game needed to surpass this number by the oddsmakers, Bill. So for me the play is a clear play and it's a clear play on the over for Tyreek Hill in 2020.

Bill Enright: Josh, when it comes to the Chiefs, no one covers them as closely as you do, so what do you expect to see out of Hill in 2020?

Josh Brisco: It's funny because these specific bets are so tied to everything else. Like, I'm I'm kind of high on McCole Hardeman. I'm a little lower on Sammy Watkins, high on Travis Kelce. How many yards are there to go around? Honestly, it should all start with Tyreek Hill. I think this is a clear over bet. Like Frank said, you're betting on if he gets hurt or not, if he's healthy - this number is a joke. And if he gets hurt, obviously the thing is a little bit thrown out of out of whack. Then I'm betting on him being healthy and I'm betting on him being excellent, frankly, even continuing to get better. His route running, his comfort in this offense is only improving still. He has growth in his game at this point. So, yeah, I'm taking the over here. It's all about him staying healthy. If he's healthy, I think he blows past 1,200.