Vikings vs. Jaguars Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 10 (Trevor Lawrence Injury Status Hurts Jacksonville)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 8, 2024

Nov 3, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram (17) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

News broke on Thursday morning that Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, is unlikely to play on Sunday due to a left shoulder injury.

As #Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (left shoulder) continues to get treatment and weigh options for the future, sources say he’s considered unlikely to play Sunday vs the #Vikings.

Lawrence was limited in practice yesterday & coach Doug Pederson was noncommittal about his status. pic.twitter.com/9D4q5ogSe3

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 7, 2024

That leaves Mac Jones in line to make his first start for Jacksonville after being picked up by the team this offseason. As a result, the betting market has adjusted the odds for their Week 10 game against the Minnesota Vikings.

Let's take a look at how the odds have shifted and then I'll predict what the final score will be.

Vikings vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Vikings -7 (-105)
• Jaguars +7 (-115)

Moneyline

• Vikings -295
• Jaguars +240

Total

• OVER 44.5 (-105)
• UNDER 44.5 (-115)

Due to the Lawrence injury news, the line has skyrocketed in favor of the Vikings, moving from -4.5 to -7. Not only is 2.5 points a significant movement, but the spread getting to the key number of seven is important when it comes to NFL betting. The total for the game has dropped three points from 47.5 down to 44.5.

Vikings vs. Jaguars Final Score Prediction

I bet the Vikings early in the week at -4.5, but based on the line movement I now like the Jaguars getting the seven points with Mac Jones at quarterback.

The Vikings are going to be in a great spot to win this game against a Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in opponent EPA per play. Overall, Minnesota is the better team ranking sixth in Net Yards per Play (+0.5) this season compared to the Jaguars at 23rd (-0.4). With that being said, I don't think Jones is as significant of a drop off as the line movement indicates.

Lawrence has been an average quarterback this season and Jones has could see a career resurgence in a new environment. Let's remember how bad of a situation he was in with the Patriots, having to play infront of a terrible offensive line with no weapons at receiver. Jones looked strong in the preseason for the Jaguars and could put together a solid outing on Sunday.

I still think the Vikings win and cover the original number, but in terms of my final score prediction, I'm going to take the Jaguars to keep it within a touchdown.

Final score prediction: Vikings 28, Jaguars 22

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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